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Stock Price Prediction Using Genetic Neuro-Fuzzy Model
Subject area: Science,Engineering and Technology · Area of research: Machine Learning
DOI: https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV4I8-1702593
Abstract
The need to accurately predict the price of stock before trading is important as it will minimize loss and maximize profit. A lot of approaches have been used to do this but the results obtained have not been satisfactory. This paper therefore presents a hybrid of genetic algorithm and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy systems for stock price prediction. A neuro-fuzzy model was optimized using Genetic Algorithm which is an evolutionary approach. The model was tested using stock dataset of First bank Nigeria PLC. The model was trained using 2001 data items consisting of 3 attributes obtained during feature selection. The model?s parameter obtained from the training are then saved. For testing, 228 data items are used to test the model. Out of this, 172 are classified correctly while 56 were misclassified. The model was compared with a neural networks model, a decision tree model and a neuro-fuzzy model. The model outperforms these models by having the lowest mean square error.
Keywords
Stock, neuro-fuzzy, genetic, evolutionary, model
References
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[2] Adewole, K.S., Olaniyi, A.S., Jimoh, R. G., (2011), Stock Trend Prediction Using Regression Analysis –A Data Mining Approach, ARPN Journal of Systems and Software, vol.1, pp 154-155 International Journal of Trend in Research and Development, Volume 5(3), ISSN: 2394-9333 www.ijtrd.com IJTRD | May – Jun 2018 Available Online@www.ijtrd.com 346
[3] Akintola K.G., Boyinbode O.K., Ajose M. (2009), Computer Decision Support System for Stock Prices Forecasting: Towards forestalling Economic Downturn. The proceedings of the Nigerian Computer society, MACGLOBE 2009, Abuja, Nigeria.
[4] Akintola K.G. Alese B.K. Thompson A.F. (2011). Time Series Forecasting with Neural Network: A case study of stock prices of Intercontinental Bank Nigeria. IJRRAS 9 (3), December 2011.
[5] Akintola K.G. (2018) “An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for Forecasting Stock Price: A case study of Prices of First Bank Nigeria”. International Journal of Trend Research and Development Vol. 5 Number 3 pp 340-346.
[6] Atsalakis, G. S., Valavanis, K.P. (2009) “Surveying stock market forecasting techniques – Part II: Soft computing methods”, Expert Systems with Applications, vol 36, pp. 5932-5941.
[7] Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: a Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York Institute of Finance.
[8] Nwaiwu, I.C. (2004), “The Beginner’s Guide to Investing in the Nigerian Stock Market”, Stockmarketnigeria.com.
[9] Olanrewaju O.E Akintola K.G Akinduyite C.O. (2016). Stock Prediction using Regression Tree Model, Proceedings of 2nd International conference on Intelligent Computing and Emerging Technologies (ICET, 13th -15th November, 2016, Computer Science Department, Babcock university. Ilishan Remo, Ogun State, Nigeria.
[10] Osman Hegazy, O. Soliman O. S. Toony A. A. (2014) Hybrid of neuro-fuzzy inference system and quantum genetic algorithm for prediction in stock market. Issues in Business Management and Economics Vol.2 (6), pp. 094-102, June 2014 Available online at http://www.journalissues.org/IBME/ ISSN 2350-157X
[11] Ritchie, J.C. (1996) Fundamental Analysis: a Back-to-the-Basics Investment Guide to Selecting Quality Stocks. Irwin Professional Publishing.
[12] Wang, Y.F. (2002) “Predicting stock price using fuzzy grey prediction system”, Expert Systems with Applications, 22, pp. 33-39.
How to cite this paper
@article{1702593,
author = {Akintola K.G, Olatunde O.V},
title = {Stock Price Prediction Using Genetic Neuro-Fuzzy Model},
journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
year = {2021},
volume = {4},
number = {8},
pages = {58-66},
issn = {2456-8880},
url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1702593.pdf},
abstract = {The need to accurately predict the price of stock before trading is important as it will minimize loss and maximize profit. A lot of approaches have been used to do this but the results obtained have not been satisfactory. This paper therefore presents a hybrid of genetic algorithm and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy systems for stock price prediction. A neuro-fuzzy model was optimized using Genetic Algorithm which is an evolutionary approach. The model was tested using stock dataset of First bank Nigeria PLC. The model was trained using 2001 data items consisting of 3 attributes obtained during feature selection. The model?s parameter obtained from the training are then saved. For testing, 228 data items are used to test the model. Out of this, 172 are classified correctly while 56 were misclassified. The model was compared with a neural networks model, a decision tree model and a neuro-fuzzy model. The model outperforms these models by having the lowest mean square error.},
keywords = {Stock, neuro-fuzzy, genetic, evolutionary, model},
month = {February},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV4I8-1702593}
}