Rice Price Forecasting Using the Arima Model

@article{1705412,
      author = {Mark Benson S. Imbat, Francis Shayne S. Gordovez, Rolando M. Solomon, Glen Edison Q. Malicdem, John Domenick P. Andrada; Easter B. Belandres, PhD},
      title = {Rice Price Forecasting Using the Arima Model},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2024},
      volume = {7},
      number = {7},
      pages = {333-338},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1705412.pdf},
      abstract = {In the Philippines, paddy is the primary source of income for Filipino farmers; however, a problem was pointed out along with the rice price. To monitor the price of rice, an autoregressive integrated moving average is employed (ARIMA). In the context of the price of rice for farmers, ARIMA can be applied to analyze historical price data and make predictions about future prices. Consequently, some factors affect the price of rice, and these factors should be identified to be able to develop a reliable forecast of the retail price in Eastern Pangasinan for the next 5 years, from 2024 to 2028. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the factors that can affect the increase in the price of rice and the factors that greatly affect the increase in the price of rice. As a result, the increase in rice prices was affected by these factors: fertilizer, fuel, machinery, and insects. In 2024, the price of regular well-milled rice per kilogram has increased to 0.46% every month compared to the 2023 forecasted price of regular well-milled rice. Then, the price of regular well-milled rice will increase by 5.68% every year starting in 2025?2028.},
      keywords = {Farmers, Filipino, Paddy, Price, Well-Milled Rice},
      month = {January},
  }