Mathematical Model for Predicting Climate Change Impact on Water Availability and Quality: A SWAT-SEIR Framework

References

[1] Antony, J. M., Jonathan, A., & Andrew, H. (2017). Global climate change: The potential effects on health. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 315, 805-809.

[2] Baiwen, M., Junya, Z., Chengzhi, H., & Mathias, U. (2022). Impact of climate change on drinking water safety. Water Research, 201, 117366.

[3] Bussi, G., Paul, W., Li, J., & Meron, T. T. (2021). Impacts of climate change and population growth on river nutrient loads: The Upper Awash River. Journal of Hydrology, 595, 125972.

[4] Byrne, A., Norris, K., Chadwick, M. A., Avery, S., Olaka, L., & Tebbs, E. J. (2024). Rising lake levels in central East Africa driven by rainfall and land-use intensification. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 56, 101999.

[5] Githui, F. W., Mutua, F. M., & Bauwens, W. (2009). Land-cover change impacts on runoff using SWAT: Nzoia catchment, Kenya. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(5), 899-908.

[6] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Sixth Assessment Report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press.

[7] Ogega, O. M., Scoccimarro, E., Misiani, H., et al. (2023). Extreme climatic events intensifying over Lake Victoria Basin under global warming. Scientific Reports, 13, 9729.

[8] Sukanya, S., & Sabu, J. (2023). Climate change impacts on water resources. Visualization Techniques for Climate Change with Machine Learning, 55-76.

[9] Tan, M. L., Xiaoying, Y., & Haywoods, J. (2020). SWAT applications review for hydro-climatic extremes simulation. Advances in Water Resources, 143, 103662.

[10] Taye, M. T., & Dyer, E. (2024). Hydrologic extremes in changing climate: East Africa review. Current Climate Change Reports, 10, 1-15.

[11] Zhai, X., & Zhang, Y. (2017). Integrated hydrological and water quality simulation for disturbance assessment, Huai River Basin. Science of the Total Environment, 579, 1663-1676.

@article{1709729,
      author = {Nyongesa Fatuma Nandaha, Andanje Mulambula, Martha Muthoni Konje},
      title = {Mathematical Model for Predicting Climate Change Impact on Water Availability and Quality: A SWAT-SEIR Framework},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2025},
      volume = {9},
      number = {1},
      pages = {851-855},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1709729.pdf},
      abstract = {Flood-prone regions, such as Budalangi in the Lake Victoria Basin, frequently experience endemic contamination of their water resources due to recurrent flooding events. Consequently, effective water management strategies in such regions must address not only acute contamination during flood events but also the persistent, chronic nature of waterborne contamination driven by climatic variability and infrastructural challenges. The framework successfully demonstrated the capacity to simulate the dynamic behavior of water systems influenced by environmental stressors, making it suitable for comprehensive climate-water interaction assessments. This paper presents an integrated mathematical model that captures the dynamics between climate change and water security and analyze the impact of climate change on water security in Budalangi.},
      keywords = {Climate Change, Water Security, Contamination Propagation, Hydrological Modeling, Basic Reproduction Number, RK4},
      month = {July},
  }