Home / Current Issue / Paper 1711319
Analyzing Interest Rate as A Monetary Transmission Channel Affecting Consumer Prices in Nigeria
Subject area: Arts, Social Sciences and Humanities · Area of research: Economics
DOI: 10.64388/IREV9I4-1711319-6262
Abstract
This study analyzes the role of interest rate as a monetary transmission channel affecting consumer prices in Nigeria from 1996 to 2023. The research aims to determine the effectiveness of the interest rate channel in transmitting monetary policy impulses to consumer prices within the Nigerian economy. Employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, the study investigates both the short-run and long-run dynamics among key macroeconomic variables, including money supply, interest rate, and consumer prices. The empirical findings reveal that an increase in money supply exerts a considerable inflationary effect over time and influences short-run interest rates, indicating that monetary aggregate expansion has an immediate effect on interest rates in Nigeria. However, the influence of money supply on interest rates does not have a significant impact on the general price level, suggesting that money supply affects consumer prices through other channels apart from the interest rate. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria refine its monetary policy tools to ensure that changes in money supply are effectively targeted toward influencing key economic variables. Furthermore, deepening and improving the efficiency of Nigeria?s financial markets could enhance the transmission mechanism from interest rates to the broader economy. The study also underscores the importance of fiscal coordination, as the limited effect of money supply on prices through the interest rate channel indicates the need for a more harmonized macroeconomic policy framework.
Keywords
Interest rate, Monetary transmission mechanism, Money supply, Consumer prices, Inflation, Nigeria, Structural VAR, Monetary policy.
References
[1] Abasimi, I., Li, X., Salim, A. & Vorlak, L. (2018). The dynamics of inflation, money growth, exchange rates and interest rates in Ghana. Journal of Business Management and Economic Research, 2(6), 21-32
[2] Ademola, O. A., Alalade, Y. S., Ogbebor, O. A., & Aworinde, O. B. (2023). The impact of interest rates on inflation in Nigeria: Evidence from ARDL approach. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 20, 495–508. https://wseas.com/journals/bae/2023/e765107-2565.pdf
[3] Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: The credit channel of monetary policy transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27-48.
[4] Central Bank of Nigeria (2016). An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Macro-Prudential Instruments on the Nigerian Economy. CBN Research Department.
[5] Central Bank of Nigeria (2024). Annual statistical bulletin. CBN Publication.
[6] Chirwa, E. W., & Mlachila, M. (2004). Financial intermediation and monetary policy transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 13(1), 115-138.
[7] Ebiringa, O. T. & Anyaogu, N. (2014). Exchange rate, inflation and interest rates relationships: An autoregressive distributed lag analysis. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 2(2), 263-279.
[8] Ifionu, E. & Akinpelumi, O. F. (2015). Macroeconomic variables and money supply: evidence from Nigeria. African Research Review, 9(4), 288-307. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/afrrev.v9i4.22
[9] Knotek, E. & Zaman, S (2024). The effects of interest rate increases on consumers' inflation expectations. Inter-American Development Bank Discussion Paper. Washington, DC: IDB
[10] Offor, P. U., Amadi, T., & Uzoma, F. I. (2022). Nigerian monetary policy (1991–2021): Money supply rate and inflation rate. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 22(20), 39–48. https://journalajeba.com/index.php/AJEBA/article/view/883
[11] Olanrele, I. A., & Angahar, J. S. (2024). Interest rate shocks and inflation dynamics in Nigeria: A structural VAR approach. International Journal of Humanities Education and Social Sciences, 4(1), 84–95. https://ejournal.yasin-alsys.org/IJHESS/article/view/5009
[12] Olasehinde-Williams, G., Omotosho, O., & Bekun, F. V. (2024). Interest rate volatility and economic growth in Nigeria: New insight from the quantile autoregressive distributed lag model. Journal of the Knowledge Economy. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-01924-x
[13] Onanuga, A., & Onanuga, O. T. (2014). The impact of interest rate channel of monetary policy on output and prices in Nigeria: An unrestricted VAR approach. Journal of African Macroeconomic Review, 4(1), 286–294. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83322/
[14] Osundina, K. C., Tella, S. A., & Adesoye, A. B. (2018). Interest rate channel and real economy in Nigeria: A Bayesian vector autoregression approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(4), 313–321. https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/6113
[15] Shuaibu, A. A., Musa, M. K., Jabir, I. M., & Sanusi, A. S. (2023). Testing the asymmetric relationship between interest rate and inflation in Nigeria: A NARDL approach. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Business Studies, 5(1), 54–66. https://journal.multitechpublisher.com/index.php/ijefbs/article/view/1462
[16] Tonye, B., & Gbawe, K. (2024). Interest rate, exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria: An econometric approach. FUW International Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 9(1), 44–56. https://fuw-ijmss.com.ng/index.php/fijmss/article/view/115
[17] Udeaja, E. A., Audu, N. P., & Obiezue, T. O. (2020). The transmission mechanism of monetary policy shocks in Nigeria: The interest and exchange rates channels. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 7(9), 283–311. https://journals.scholarpublishing.org/index.php/ASSRJ/article/view/8927
[18] Uwakwe, Q. C. (2025). Impact of interest rate spread on domestic investment in Nigeria. Global Review of Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(2), 1–14. https://journals.amssr.org/grjesd/2025/08/16/impact-of-interest-rate-spread-on-domestic-investment-in-nigeria/
[19] Yunana, T. W. (2011). The effects of money supply on interest rate in Nigeria (1988 – 2010). A Thesis Submitted to the Post-Graduate School, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirement for the Award of Degree of Masters of Science in Economics.
[20] Yusuf, B., Afiemo, O., & Isah, A. (2022). Assessment of interest rate channel effectiveness in the transmission of monetary policy in Nigeria. Applied Journal of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, 3(5), 27–42. https://nokspublishing.com/index.php/AJMSS/article/view/63
How to cite this paper
@article{1711319,
author = {Emmanuel Sunday KOLEDOYE, Adedejo Emmanuel ADEDAYO},
title = {Analyzing Interest Rate as A Monetary Transmission Channel Affecting Consumer Prices in Nigeria},
journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
year = {2025},
volume = {9},
number = {4},
pages = {729-738},
issn = {2456-8880},
url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1711319.pdf},
abstract = {This study analyzes the role of interest rate as a monetary transmission channel affecting consumer prices in Nigeria from 1996 to 2023. The research aims to determine the effectiveness of the interest rate channel in transmitting monetary policy impulses to consumer prices within the Nigerian economy. Employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, the study investigates both the short-run and long-run dynamics among key macroeconomic variables, including money supply, interest rate, and consumer prices. The empirical findings reveal that an increase in money supply exerts a considerable inflationary effect over time and influences short-run interest rates, indicating that monetary aggregate expansion has an immediate effect on interest rates in Nigeria. However, the influence of money supply on interest rates does not have a significant impact on the general price level, suggesting that money supply affects consumer prices through other channels apart from the interest rate. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria refine its monetary policy tools to ensure that changes in money supply are effectively targeted toward influencing key economic variables. Furthermore, deepening and improving the efficiency of Nigeria?s financial markets could enhance the transmission mechanism from interest rates to the broader economy. The study also underscores the importance of fiscal coordination, as the limited effect of money supply on prices through the interest rate channel indicates the need for a more harmonized macroeconomic policy framework.},
keywords = {Interest rate, Monetary transmission mechanism, Money supply, Consumer prices, Inflation, Nigeria, Structural VAR, Monetary policy.},
month = {October},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I4-1711319-6262}
}