Home / Current Issue / Paper 1714053
Effects of Monetary Policies on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria: Further Investigation
Subject area: Arts, Social Sciences and Humanities · Area of research: Econometrics, Monetary Policy & Capital market
DOI: https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I8-1714053
Abstract
This study examines the effects of monetary policy instruments on stock market performance in Nigeria over the period 1990–2024. Using the All Share Index (ASI) as a measure of stock market performance, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling framework to analyze both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships between monetary policy variables and stock market outcomes. The monetary policy variables considered include the monetary policy rate, broad money supply, inflation rate, exchange rate, treasury bill rate, and cash reserve ratio. Unit root test results indicate that the variables are integrated of mixed orders, thereby justifying the application of the ARDL approach. The ARDL bounds test reveals the absence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, suggesting that Nigeria’s stock market is more responsive to short-term monetary policy shocks than to long-term policy trends. Short-run results show that changes in money supply, inflation, and interest-related variables significantly influence stock market performance. Diagnostic and stability tests confirm the adequacy and robustness of the estimated model. The study concludes that monetary policy actions in Nigeria primarily affect the stock market through short-run transmission channels, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic instability.
Keywords
Monetary Policy, Stock Market Performance, ARDL, All Share Index, Nigeria.
References
[1] Aduda, J., Masila. J.M., & Onsongo, E.N. (2012). Determinants of stock market development: The case for the Nairobi Stock Exchange. International Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 2(9), 214-230.
[2] Babangida, J. S., & Khan, A. (2021). The nonlinear relationship between monetary policy and the stock market in Nigeria: Evidence from a STAR model. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 12(1), 1–21.
[3] EPRA International Journal of Research and Development (EPRA IJRD). (2019). Effects of monetary policy on stock market performance in Nigeria. EPRA IJRD, 4(5).
[4] IIARD International Journal of Banking and Finance Research. (2024). Monetary policy and stock prices in developing economies: The case of Nigeria. IIARD Journal, 10(5).
[5] Lawal, A. I., Somoye, R. O. C., Babajide, A. A., & Nwanji, T. I. (2018). The effect of fiscal and monetary policies on Nigerian stock market performance: A sectoral analysis. Future Business Journal, 4(1), 16–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2017.11.004
[6] Orekoya, S. (2020). Government policies and stock market performance in Nigeria.
[7] Nowbutsing, B.H., & Odit, M.P. (2009). Stock market development and economic growth: The case of Mauritius. International Business and Economic Research Journal, 8, 77 88
[8] Adekunle, W., Olayiwola, S., & Oladele, M. (2016). Monetary policy and stock market performance in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 7(12), 95–105.
[9] Altintas, H., & Yacouba, D. (2018). Nonlinear effects of monetary policy on stock markets: Evidence from emerging economies. Emerging Markets Review, 34(1), 65–78.
[10] Babangida, J. S., & Khan, A. (2021). Effect of monetary policy on the Nigerian stock market: A smooth transition autoregressive approach. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 12(1), 1–21.
[11] Barakat, M. R., Elgazzar, S. H., & Hanafy, K. M. (2016). Impact of macroeconomic variables on stock markets: Evidence from emerging markets. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(1), 195–207.
[12] Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: The credit channel of monetary policy transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27–48.
[13] Bernanke, B. S., & Kuttner, K. N. (2005). What explains the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy? Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1221–1257.
[14] Bissoon, O., Seetanah, B., & Padachi, K. (2016). Monetary policy and stock market development in small open economies. Journal of Applied Economics, 19(2), 227–250.
[15] Bjørnland, H. C., & Leitemo, K. (2009). Identifying the interdependence between U.S. monetary policy and the stock market. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(2), 275–282.
[16] Chatziantoniou, I., Duffy, D., & Filis, G. (2013). Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence. Economic Modelling, 30(1), 754–769.
[17] Echekoba, F. N., Ananwude, A. C., & Obi, B. (2018). Monetary policy and stock market development in Nigeria: An empirical analysis. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(1), 1–10.
[18] EPRA International Journal of Research and Development (IJRD). (2019). Effects of monetary policy on stock market performance in Nigeria. EPRA IJRD, 4(5), 115–130.
[19] IIARD International Institute of Academic Research and Development. (2024). Monetary policy and stock prices in developing economies: The case of Nigeria. IIARD International Journal of Banking and Finance Research, 10(5), 45–62.
[20] Lawal, A. I., Somoye, R. O. C., Babajide, A. A., & Nwanji, T. I. (2018). The effect of fiscal and monetary policies on Nigerian stock market performance: A sectoral analysis. Future Business Journal, 4(1), 16–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2017.11.004
[21] Mishkin, F. S. (2016). The economics of money, banking and financial markets (11th ed.). Pearson Education.
[22] Nwakoby, I. C., & Alajekwu, U. B. (2016). Effect of monetary policy on the Nigerian stock market performance. Journal of Social Sciences, 12(2), 53–65.
[23] Orekoya, S. (2020). Government policies and stock market performance in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Financial Studies, 8(3), 105–120.
[24] Patelis, A. D. (1997). Stock return predictability and the role of monetary policy. Journal of Finance, 52(5), 1951–1972.
[25] Thorbecke, W. (1997). On stock market returns and monetary policy. Journal of Finance, 52(2), 635–654.
[26] Tobin, J. (1969). A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(1), 15–29.
[27] Van Aarle, B., Garretsen, H., & Gobbin, N. (2003). Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro area: Evidence from structural VAR analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 25(4), 613–639.
[28] Babangida, S., & Khan, S. (2021). Effect of Monetary Policy on the Nigerian Stock Market: A Smooth Transition Autoregressive Approach. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 12(1), 1–21.
[29] Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships Over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–192.
[30] Jarque, C. M., & Bera, A. K. (1980). Efficient Tests for Normality, Homoscedasticity and Serial Independence of Regression Residuals. Economics Letters, 6(3), 255–259.
[31] Lawal, A. I., Nwanji, T. I., Asaleye, A. J., & Ahmed, V. (2018). Does Government Policy Influence Stock Market Performance? Evidence from Nigeria. Future Business Journal, 4(1), 16–33.
[32] Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
How to cite this paper
@article{1714053,
author = {Balogun Fatimah Omotoyosi, Adizuo onyekachi Isreal, Bello Tajudeen Atanda, Shodiya Bilqees Temitope; Unagha Oluchi Chibuzor, Bello, Hassan T. (Ph.D.); Gbemisola, O. S},
title = {Effects of Monetary Policies on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria: Further Investigation},
journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
year = {2026},
volume = {9},
number = {8},
pages = {183-194},
issn = {2456-8880},
url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1714053.pdf},
abstract = {This study examines the effects of monetary policy instruments on stock market performance in Nigeria over the period 1990–2024. Using the All Share Index (ASI) as a measure of stock market performance, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling framework to analyze both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships between monetary policy variables and stock market outcomes. The monetary policy variables considered include the monetary policy rate, broad money supply, inflation rate, exchange rate, treasury bill rate, and cash reserve ratio. Unit root test results indicate that the variables are integrated of mixed orders, thereby justifying the application of the ARDL approach. The ARDL bounds test reveals the absence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, suggesting that Nigeria’s stock market is more responsive to short-term monetary policy shocks than to long-term policy trends. Short-run results show that changes in money supply, inflation, and interest-related variables significantly influence stock market performance. Diagnostic and stability tests confirm the adequacy and robustness of the estimated model. The study concludes that monetary policy actions in Nigeria primarily affect the stock market through short-run transmission channels, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic instability.},
keywords = {Monetary Policy, Stock Market Performance, ARDL, All Share Index, Nigeria.},
month = {February},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I8-1714053}
}