Current Volume 9
Beyond the Battlefield: The Unseen Supply Chain Price of the Iran War to American Businesses and Consumers
Abstract
The 2026 Iran War, which began with U.S./Israeli air strikes on February 28, 2026 (codenamed Operation Roaring Lion and Operation Epic Fury, respectively) has created what numerous credible sources describe as the greatest geopolitical oil shock in history. This systematic review integrates 13 sources in examining the economic effects of the war's shock transmission via U.S. supply chains to U.S. businesses and households. The review employs PRISMA 2020 standards, categorizes evidence to five broad themes: (1) energy price transmission and the oil shock; (2) maritime freight disruption and rerouting; (3) critical material shortages and input scarcity; (4) firm-level impacts and asymmetry (large firms vs. SMEs); and (5) consumer welfare effects across multiple channels. A well-supported sixth theme, uncertainty, fragility of legal-contractual frameworks, and governance risk as independent channels, emerges from nine of the 13 sources and is formally recommended for inclusion. A cross-cutting empirical evidence of asymmetric market governance across transmission channels is revealed across four market layers: the commodity (oil), maritime freight, specialty inputs and consumer retail food prices. The studies reveal that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) normally passes, has led to a near-complete shut-down of tanker traffic (97%), 27-35% spike in Brent crude for the first week following the geopolitical shock, 74% spike in European natural gas futures, and downstream food-price transmission that is expected to extend 12-18 months after the geopolitical disruption subsides. The distributional evidence reveals U.S. households in the lowest income quintile are especially impacted, allocating 25-35% of after-tax income on food, versus 7-10% in the highest quintile. The review reveals key remaining gaps, particularly evidence on U.S. SMEs, and offers a quality-stratified synthesis of evidence from Federal Reserve working papers to low-quality open-access articles.
Keywords
Iran War 2026; Strait of Hormuz; Supply Chain; Consumer; U.S.
Citations
IRE Journals:
Tokoni Forun "Beyond the Battlefield: The Unseen Supply Chain Price of the Iran War to American Businesses and Consumers" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 9 Issue 10 2026 Page 3714-3724 https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I10-1717131
IEEE:
Tokoni Forun
"Beyond the Battlefield: The Unseen Supply Chain Price of the Iran War to American Businesses and Consumers" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 9(10) https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I10-1717131
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