Risk-Informed Project Delivery: Decision Frameworks for Complex Civil Engineering Megaprojects

References

[1] Aven, T. (2016). Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation. European Journal of Operational Research, 253(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.023

[2] Baccarini, D. (1996). The concept of project complexity—A review. International Journalof Project Management,14(4),201–204. https://doi.org/10.1016/0263-7863(95)00093-3

[3] Chapman, C., & Ward, S. (2011). How to manage project opportunity and risk: Why uncertainty management can be a much better approach than risk management (3rd ed.). Wiley.

[4] Flyvbjerg, B. (2014). What you should know about megaprojects and why: An overview.

[5] Project Management Journal, 45(2), 6–19. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21409

[6] Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzelius, N., & Rothengatter, W. (2003). Megaprojects and risk: An anatomy of ambition. Cambridge University Press.

[7] Hillson, D. (2009). Managing risk in projects. Gower Publishing.

[8] Jaafari, A. (2001). Management of risks, uncertainties and opportunities on projects: Time for a fundamental shift. International Journal of Project Management, 19(2), 89–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(99)00047-2

[9] Kerzner, H. (2022). Project management: A systems approach to planning, scheduling, and controlling (13th ed.). Wiley.

[10] Kwak, Y. H., & Ingall, L. (2007). Exploring Monte Carlo simulation applications for projectmanagement. Risk Management,9(1),44–57. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rm.8250017

[11] Lessard, D., Sakhrani, V., & Miller, R. (2014). House of project complexity—Understanding complexity in large infrastructure projects. Engineering ProjectOrganization Journal, 4(4), 170–192. https://doi.org/10.1080/21573727.2014.907151

[12] Miller, R., & Lessard, D. (2001). Understanding and managing risks in large engineering projects. International Journal of Project Management, 19(8), 437–443. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(01)00045-X

[13] PMI. (2021). A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) (7th ed.). Project Management Institute.

[14] Ruuska, I., & Teigland, R. (2009). Ensuring project success through collective competence and creative conflict in public-private partnerships. International Journal of Project Management, 27(4), 323–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2008.02.007

[15] Shenhar, A. J., & Dvir, D. (2007). Reinventing project management: The diamond approach to successful growth and innovation. Harvard Business School Press.

[16] Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.

[17] Too, E. G., & Weaver, P. (2014). The management of project management: A conceptual framework for project governance. International Journal of Project Management, 32(8), 1382–1394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.07.006

[18] Ward, S., & Chapman, C. (2003). Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty management. International Journal of Project Management, 21(2), 97–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(01)00080-1

[19] Winch, G. M. (2010). Managing construction projects. Wiley-Blackwell.

[20] Zhai, L., Xin, Y., & Cheng, C. (2009). Understanding the value of project management from a stakeholder’s perspective. Project Management Journal, 40(1), 99–109. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.20116

@article{1717370,
      author = {Oguz Kahraman},
      title = {Risk-Informed Project Delivery: Decision Frameworks for Complex Civil Engineering Megaprojects},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2026},
      volume = {9},
      number = {11},
      pages = {5398-5414},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1717370.pdf},
      abstract = {The growing scale, complexity, and interdependency of modern civil engineering megaprojects have significantly increased the importance of uncertainty management throughout project delivery. Conventional risk management approaches often rely on static documentation practices that separate risk analysis from operational decision-making processes. While such methods provide formal risk visibility, they frequently fail to influence real-time engineering, planning, and execution decisions under dynamic project conditions. As a result, megaprojects continue to experience delays, cost overruns, coordination failures, and operational disruptions despite extensive risk management procedures. This paper examines risk-informed project delivery as an integrated decision-oriented framework in which uncertainty actively shapes engineering and management processes across the full project lifecycle. The study argues that successful megaproject delivery depends not only on identifying risks, but also on embedding risk considerations directly into planning, design, sequencing, coordination, and execution decisions. Particular attention is given to adaptive decision-making, prioritization of critical uncertainties, operational trade-off analysis, and cross-disciplinary communication within large-scale infrastructure environments. Drawing from practical engineering perspectives and systems-level project management principles, the paper explores how structured decision frameworks improve project reliability by linking risk evaluation with actionable operational choices. The study further investigates the role of continuous feedback mechanisms, adaptability, and stakeholder alignment in reducing uncertainty across complex project environments involving multiple technical, logistical, and institutional dependencies. The paper ultimately proposes that risk-informed delivery represents a broader transformation in megaproject management, shifting risk from a passive reporting function toward an active operational driver guiding decision-making under uncertainty.},
      keywords = {Risk-Informed Delivery, Megaproject Management, Civil Engineering, Decision Frameworks, Infrastructure Uncertainty},
      month = {May},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I11-1717370}
  }