Temporal Patterns, Gender Disparities & Future Projections of Suicide Rates (A Statistical Analysis Across Selected WHO Regions and Nigeria (2000–2021))

• Author(s): Egbo M. N.; Nwoye O. N.; Abiahu O. C.; Ogor B. O.
• Paper ID: 1718104
• Page: 3360-3372
• Published Date: 25-05-2026
• Published In: Iconic Research And Engineering Journals
• Publisher: IRE Journals
• e-ISSN: 2456-8880
• Volume/Issue: Volume 9 Issue 11 May-2026

Abstract

This study examined the temporal patterns, gender disparities, and future projections of suicide rates across selected WHO regions and Nigeria between 2000 and 2021 using descriptive statistics, trend analysis, moving averages, volatility measures, and ARIMA forecasting techniques. Suicide remains a major global public health challenge, with clear regional and gender-based differences that continue to shape mortality patterns worldwide. The findings revealed substantial regional variation in suicide rates. Europe recorded the highest mean total suicide rate (34.04 per 100,000 population), while the Eastern Mediterranean region recorded the lowest (5.34). Although most regions showed a gradual decline in suicide rates over time, the pace of decline differed considerably. Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean exhibited strong downward trends, whereas Africa showed only slight changes over the study period. The study also confirmed persistent gender inequality in suicide mortality across all regions. Male suicide rates consistently exceeded female rates, with Europe recording the widest gender gap (20.30). Nigeria displayed a distinct pattern characterized by moderate suicide rates but widening gender disparity over time, as the male-to-female suicide ratio increased steadily throughout the study period. This suggests that while overall suicide levels in Nigeria remained relatively stable, male vulnerability to suicide became increasingly pronounced. Forecasting using the ARIMA (0,2,2) model projected that Nigeria’s suicide rates are likely to remain relatively stable up to 2030, with only a slight downward movement if current conditions persist. The study concludes that suicide mortality is influenced by complex social, demographic, and structural factors, and that reducing the burden of suicide will require stronger mental health systems, improved suicide surveillance, gender-sensitive interventions, and proactive long-term public health policies.

Keywords

Suicide Rate, Gender Disparity, Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, Volatility.

Citations

IRE Journals:
Egbo M. N., Nwoye O. N., Abiahu O. C., Ogor B. O. "Temporal Patterns, Gender Disparities & Future Projections of Suicide Rates (A Statistical Analysis Across Selected WHO Regions and Nigeria (2000–2021))" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 9 Issue 11 2026 Page 3360-3372 https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I11-1718104

IEEE:
Egbo M. N., Nwoye O. N., Abiahu O. C., Ogor B. O. "Temporal Patterns, Gender Disparities & Future Projections of Suicide Rates (A Statistical Analysis Across Selected WHO Regions and Nigeria (2000–2021))" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 9(11) https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I11-1718104