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Application of Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Charts for Monitoring Rainfall Variability Across Nigeria’s Geopolitical Zones
Subject area: Science,Engineering and Technology · Area of research: Weighted Moving Average Charts
Abstract
This study investigates rainfall variability across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones using Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control charts and long-term rainfall data spanning 1981–2022. EWMA control charts were employed to detect shifts, trends, and anomalies in rainfall patterns because of their sensitivity to small changes in time-series data reveal clear spatial disparities: the northern regions experienced prolonged low-rainfall anomalies, whereas the southern regions showed increasing variability and frequent high-rainfall anomalies. These patterns reflect the impacts of emerging climate change and the associated hydrological risks. The findings demonstrate that EWMA control charts provide a reliable statistical framework for rainfall monitoring and support evidence-based policy decisions in agriculture, water resource management, and disaster risk reduction.
Keywords
Rainfall Variability, EWMA Control Chart, Climate Change, Nigeria, Statistical Monitoring
References
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How to cite this paper
@article{1718249,
author = {Omotoso Saliu Adewole, Kayode Olarewaju Joseph, Atanlogun Kolawole Sunday, Edwin Oluwatoyin Ayodele},
title = {Application of Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Charts for Monitoring Rainfall Variability Across Nigeria’s Geopolitical Zones},
journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
year = {2024},
volume = {7},
number = {8},
pages = {602-607},
issn = {2456-8880},
url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1718249.pdf},
abstract = {This study investigates rainfall variability across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones using Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control charts and long-term rainfall data spanning 1981–2022. EWMA control charts were employed to detect shifts, trends, and anomalies in rainfall patterns because of their sensitivity to small changes in time-series data reveal clear spatial disparities: the northern regions experienced prolonged low-rainfall anomalies, whereas the southern regions showed increasing variability and frequent high-rainfall anomalies. These patterns reflect the impacts of emerging climate change and the associated hydrological risks. The findings demonstrate that EWMA control charts provide a reliable statistical framework for rainfall monitoring and support evidence-based policy decisions in agriculture, water resource management, and disaster risk reduction.},
keywords = {Rainfall Variability, EWMA Control Chart, Climate Change, Nigeria, Statistical Monitoring},
month = {February},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV7I8-1718249}
}