FactoryGuard AI: An IoT-Based Predictive Maintenance Engine for Industrial Robotic Arms Using XGBoost, SMOTE, and SHAP Explainability

• Author(s): Pratik Joshi; Vrushali Shinde
• Paper ID: 1718462
• Page: 4755-4766
• Published Date: 29-05-2026
• Published In: Iconic Research And Engineering Journals
• Publisher: IRE Journals
• e-ISSN: 2456-8880
• Volume/Issue: Volume 9 Issue 11 May-2026

Abstract

Unplanned equipment failure in large-scale manufacturing facilities inflicts enormous operational and financial consequences, with downtime costs estimated at $10,000 per hour per production line. This paper presents FactoryGuard AI, a comprehensive IoT-driven predictive maintenance engine designed to forecast binary failure events of industrial robotic arms with a 24-hour lead time. The system ingests streaming sensor telemetry—vibration, temperature, and pressure—from a fleet of 500 critical robotic arms and transforms raw signals into rich temporal feature representations through sliding-window statistics and exponential moving averages. The inherent class imbalance of failure events (< 1% positive class prevalence) is addressed via Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) combined with scale-position weighting. A Logistic Regression baseline is established for benchmarking, after which an optimised XGBoost gradient-boosted ensemble is trained, achieving an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.9847, a Precision of 0.923, a Recall of 0.917, and an F1-Score of 0.920 on held-out test data. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are integrated to deliver local and global model interpretability, enabling maintenance engineers to understand and trust individual failure predictions. The system reduces false negatives by 78.4% compared to the baseline, translating to an estimated annual saving of $4.2 million in avoided downtime for a 500-robot facility.

Keywords

Predictive Maintenance, IoT Sensor Fusion, XGBoost, SMOTE, SHAP, Explainable AI, Rolling Window Features, Binary Classification, Industrial IoT, Robotic Arm Monitoring

Citations

IRE Journals:
Pratik Joshi, Vrushali Shinde "FactoryGuard AI: An IoT-Based Predictive Maintenance Engine for Industrial Robotic Arms Using XGBoost, SMOTE, and SHAP Explainability" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 9 Issue 11 2026 Page 4755-4766 https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I11-1718462

IEEE:
Pratik Joshi, Vrushali Shinde "FactoryGuard AI: An IoT-Based Predictive Maintenance Engine for Industrial Robotic Arms Using XGBoost, SMOTE, and SHAP Explainability" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 9(11) https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I11-1718462