Electricity System Inefficiency and Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria: Empirical Evidence from Transmission and Distribution Losses, 1999 to 2023

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@article{1718744,
      author = {S. B. SANI (Ph.D), P. A. Adejumo},
      title = {Electricity System Inefficiency and Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria: Empirical Evidence from Transmission and Distribution Losses, 1999 to 2023},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2026},
      volume = {9},
      number = {12},
      pages = {1082-1092},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1718744.pdf},
      abstract = {This study examines the relationship that exists between electricity system inefficiency and agricultural productivity in Nigeria over the period 1999 to 2023. Electricity transmission and distribution losses serve as a proxy for electricity supply deficits, and the analysis is situated within an extended neoclassical production function framework. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to estimate both short-run and long-run effects on agricultural value added. The results reveal that transmission and distribution losses exert a statistically significant positive effect on agricultural value added in the short run; this outcome reflects generation throughput dynamics and producer adaptation through captive generation rather than any genuine productivity benefit from system deterioration. In the long run, the effect of electricity delivery losses on agricultural output is negative but statistically insignificant, which may reflect attenuation caused by labour-intensive farming structures and limited variation in the loss series across the sample period. The error correction coefficient of approximately 0.63 indicates that around 63 percent of deviations from long-run equilibrium are corrected within a single year. The cointegrating relationship among the variables and the directionally consistent long-run coefficient together support the conclusion that electricity system inefficiency constitutes a structural constraint on agricultural sector performance in Nigeria. The study recommends prioritising investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure alongside electricity-independent agricultural technologies, to close the gap between nominal generation capacity and effective electricity delivery.},
      keywords = {Electricity System Inefficiency, Agricultural Value Added, Transmission and Distribution Losses, ARDL Bounds Testing, Nigeria},
      month = {June},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I12-1718744}
  }