Home / Current Issue / Paper 1718989
Assessing the Potential Impact of Malaria Vaccine on Malaria Incidence in Children under Five, Bungoma County, Kenya
Subject area: Science,Engineering and Technology · Area of research: Applied Mathematics
DOI: https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I12-1718989
Abstract
This study assessed the potential impact of a malaria vaccine on reducing malaria incidence in children under five years old in Bungoma County, Kenya, using a mathematical modelling study design. Secondary data from Bumula Sub-county Hospital (2024) were used. Two mathematical models were applied for human host and mosquito vector populations: an age-structured SVIRSI model and an SIRSI optimal control model. The models incorporated age-dependent vaccine efficacy, maternal antibody interference, and five intervention strategies. Numerical simulations showed that vaccination, especially combined with LLITNs and ACT, significantly reduces disease burden. The WHO-recommended first dose at 6 months with a booster at 18 months is supported by the model’s qualitative results. Cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that the combination of vaccination, LLITNs, and ACT gives the lowest ICER. Model analysis included existence, uniqueness, positivity, boundedness, derivation of effective reproduction numbers R_e, local stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and global stability analysis. Both models converged to a stable endemic equilibrium consistent with local data. The findings support the WHO recommendation of administering the first RTS,S/AS01 dose at 6 months and provide mathematical validation for malaria control in Bungoma County, Kenya.
Keywords
Malaria Incidence, Model Analysis, Optimal Control, Effective Reproduction Number, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, Numerical Simulations.
How to cite this paper
@article{1718989,
author = {Opicho Dominic Simiyu, Bonface Kwach, Robert Nyukuri},
title = {Assessing the Potential Impact of Malaria Vaccine on Malaria Incidence in Children under Five, Bungoma County, Kenya},
journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
year = {2026},
volume = {9},
number = {12},
pages = {2224-2238},
issn = {2456-8880},
url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1718989.pdf},
abstract = {This study assessed the potential impact of a malaria vaccine on reducing malaria incidence in children under five years old in Bungoma County, Kenya, using a mathematical modelling study design. Secondary data from Bumula Sub-county Hospital (2024) were used. Two mathematical models were applied for human host and mosquito vector populations: an age-structured SVIRSI model and an SIRSI optimal control model. The models incorporated age-dependent vaccine efficacy, maternal antibody interference, and five intervention strategies. Numerical simulations showed that vaccination, especially combined with LLITNs and ACT, significantly reduces disease burden. The WHO-recommended first dose at 6 months with a booster at 18 months is supported by the model’s qualitative results. Cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that the combination of vaccination, LLITNs, and ACT gives the lowest ICER. Model analysis included existence, uniqueness, positivity, boundedness, derivation of effective reproduction numbers R_e, local stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and global stability analysis. Both models converged to a stable endemic equilibrium consistent with local data. The findings support the WHO recommendation of administering the first RTS,S/AS01 dose at 6 months and provide mathematical validation for malaria control in Bungoma County, Kenya.},
keywords = {Malaria Incidence, Model Analysis, Optimal Control, Effective Reproduction Number, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, Numerical Simulations.},
month = {June},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I12-1718989}
}