Current Volume 9
Assessing the Potential Impact of Malaria Vaccine on Malaria Incidence in Children under Five, Bungoma County, Kenya
Abstract
This study assessed the potential impact of a malaria vaccine on reducing malaria incidence in children under five years old in Bungoma County, Kenya, using a mathematical modelling study design. Secondary data from Bumula Sub-county Hospital (2024) were used. Two mathematical models were applied for human host and mosquito vector populations: an age-structured SVIRSI model and an SIRSI optimal control model. The models incorporated age-dependent vaccine efficacy, maternal antibody interference, and five intervention strategies. Numerical simulations showed that vaccination, especially combined with LLITNs and ACT, significantly reduces disease burden. The WHO-recommended first dose at 6 months with a booster at 18 months is supported by the model’s qualitative results. Cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that the combination of vaccination, LLITNs, and ACT gives the lowest ICER. Model analysis included existence, uniqueness, positivity, boundedness, derivation of effective reproduction numbers R_e, local stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and global stability analysis. Both models converged to a stable endemic equilibrium consistent with local data. The findings support the WHO recommendation of administering the first RTS,S/AS01 dose at 6 months and provide mathematical validation for malaria control in Bungoma County, Kenya.
Keywords
Malaria Incidence, Model Analysis, Optimal Control, Effective Reproduction Number, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, Numerical Simulations.
Citations
IRE Journals:
Opicho Dominic Simiyu, Bonface Kwach, Robert Nyukuri "Assessing the Potential Impact of Malaria Vaccine on Malaria Incidence in Children under Five, Bungoma County, Kenya" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 9 Issue 12 2026 Page 2224-2238 https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I12-1718989
IEEE:
Opicho Dominic Simiyu, Bonface Kwach, Robert Nyukuri
"Assessing the Potential Impact of Malaria Vaccine on Malaria Incidence in Children under Five, Bungoma County, Kenya" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 9(12) https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I12-1718989
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