Assessing the Potential Impact of Malaria Vaccine on Malaria Incidence in Children under Five, Bungoma County, Kenya

References

[1] Olotu A, Leach A. Efficacy of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine administered according to different schedules in African children: a randomised trial. Lancet. 2016;387(10016):367–375. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)01023-5

[2] Chataa P, Gideon KG. Analysis of a malaria transmission model with vaccination proportion and vaccine-induced immunity. Math Comput Appl. 2025;30(1):15. doi:10.3390/mca30010015

[3] Griffin JT, Lynch M. Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2016;16(4):465–472. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(14)00423-5

[4] Hogan AB, Winskill P. Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study. PLoS Med. 2020;17(11):e1003377. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003377

[5] Opicho DS, Kwach B, Nyukuri R. A mathematical model for malaria transmission dynamics with vaccination as a control variable in children under five years of age. IRE Journals. 2026;9(11). doi:10.64388/IREV9111-1718271

[6] Thomann L, Hérau F. On global existence and trend to the equilibrium for the Vlasov–Poisson–Fokker–Planck system with exterior confining potential. J Funct Anal. 2016; 271:1301–1340. doi: 10.1016/j.jfa.2016.05.012

[7] Vogt-Geisse K, Feng Z. The impact of vaccination on malaria prevalence: a vaccine-age-structured modeling approach. J Biol Syst. 2020;28(2):475–513. doi:10.1142/S0218339020400091

[8] Muller GE, Vyambwera M, et al. Stability and control in a stochastic model of malaria population dynamics. Adv Contin Discrete Models. 2023. doi:10.1186/s13662-023-03791-3

[9] Mwamtobe PMM. Optimal control of intervention strategies for malaria epidemic in Karonga District, Malawi. PhD thesis. University of the Witwatersrand; 2014.

[10] Ototo EN, Kamau L. Age-specific Plasmodium parasite profile in pre and post ITN intervention period at a highland site in western Kenya. Malar J. 2017;16:466. doi:10.1186/s12936-017-2116-5

[11] Penny MA, Camponovo F, Chitnis N, Smith TA, Tanner M. Future use-cases of vaccines in malaria control and elimination. Parasite Epidemiol Control. 2020;10:e00145. doi:10.1016/j.parepi.2020.e00145

[12] World Health Organization. Malaria profile and socio-economic predictors among under-five children: analysis of 11 sub-Saharan African countries. Malar J. 2023;22:55. doi:10.1186/s12936-023-04478-6

[13] van den Driessche P, Watmough J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math Biosci. 2002;180:29–48.

[14] Castillo-Chavez C, Song B. Dynamical models of tuberculosis and their applications. Math Biosci Eng. 2004;1(2):361–404.

[15] Bangirana P, Ssenyonga P. Long-term effects of severe malaria and its treatment on cognition and behaviour among Ugandan children. J Neuroparasitol. 2022;13. doi:10.1186/s13071-022-05386-6

[16] Ezekiel C, Alice L. Predictors of malaria vaccine hesitancy among caregivers in Bumula Sub-County, Bungoma County. Pediatr Res. 2023;13(1):15–31.

[17] Okosun O, Kazeem O, et al. Global stability and optimal control analysis of malaria dynamics in the presence of human travelers. Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Nigeria; 2018.

[18] Greenwood B, Dicko A. Malaria vaccine development: progress and challenges. Nat Rev Immunol. 2022;22(7):418–430.

[19] Castro MC, Chiyaka C, et al. Malaria incidence rates from time series of 2-wave panel surveys. PLoS Comput Biol. 2016;12(8):e1005065.

[20] Gabriel O, Joseph K, et al. Transmission dynamics and optimal control of malaria in Kenya. Discrete Dyn Nat Soc. 2016;8013574.

[21] Baghani H, Ramezani M. Orthogonal sets: their relation to the axiom of choice and a generalized fixed point theorem. J Fixed Point Theory Appl. 2016;18(3):465–477.

[22] Moturi AK, Jalang’o R, Cherono A, Muchiri SK, Snow RW, Okiro EA. Malaria vaccine coverage estimation using age-eligible populations and service user denominators in Kenya. Malar J. 2023;22(1):287. doi:10.1186/s12936-023-04721-0

[23] Okyere J, Bediako VB, Ackah JA, et al. RTS,S/AS01E vaccine defaults in Ghana: a qualitative exploration of the perspectives of defaulters and frontline health service providers. Malar J. 2023;22(1):260. doi:10.1186/s12936-023-04690-4

[24] World Health Organization. Malaria vaccines (RTS,S and R21): questions and answers. Geneva: WHO; 2024.

@article{1718989,
      author = {Opicho Dominic Simiyu, Bonface Kwach, Robert Nyukuri},
      title = {Assessing the Potential Impact of Malaria Vaccine on Malaria Incidence in Children under Five, Bungoma County, Kenya},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2026},
      volume = {9},
      number = {12},
      pages = {2224-2238},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1718989.pdf},
      abstract = {This study assessed the potential impact of a malaria vaccine on reducing malaria incidence in children under five years old in Bungoma County, Kenya, using a mathematical modelling study design. Secondary data from Bumula Sub-county Hospital (2024) were used. Two mathematical models were applied for human host and mosquito vector populations: an age-structured SVIRSI model and an SIRSI optimal control model. The models incorporated age-dependent vaccine efficacy, maternal antibody interference, and five intervention strategies. Numerical simulations showed that vaccination, especially combined with LLITNs and ACT, significantly reduces disease burden. The WHO-recommended first dose at 6 months with a booster at 18 months is supported by the model’s qualitative results. Cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that the combination of vaccination, LLITNs, and ACT gives the lowest ICER. Model analysis included existence, uniqueness, positivity, boundedness, derivation of effective reproduction numbers R_e, local stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and global stability analysis. Both models converged to a stable endemic equilibrium consistent with local data. The findings support the WHO recommendation of administering the first RTS,S/AS01 dose at 6 months and provide mathematical validation for malaria control in Bungoma County, Kenya.},
      keywords = {Malaria Incidence, Model Analysis, Optimal Control, Effective Reproduction Number, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, Numerical Simulations.},
      month = {June},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I12-1718989}
  }