Home / Current Issue / Paper 1719923
Impact of Global Events on the Indian Stock Market
Subject area: Management and Commerce · Area of research: Finance
DOI: https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV10I1-1719923
Abstract
This study examines how eleven NSE sectoral indices — Auto, Bank, FMCG, IT, Media, Metal, Pharma, Realty, Financial Services, Private Bank, and PSU Bank — responded to five major global events: the US–China Trade War (2018), Brexit (2016), the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020), the Russia–Ukraine Conflict (2022), and the Hindenburg Research Report on the Adani Group (2023). Using an Event Study Methodology over a 31-day window [−15, 0, +15], the study computes Average Abnormal Returns (AAR) and Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CAAR), with paired t-tests assessing the statistical significance of changes in mean returns and risk. COVID-19 produced the most severe disruption, with CAAR falling to −0.173 and volatility spiking across every sector — NIFTY Private Bank's standard deviation rose from 1.76 to 6.96. Brexit generated the cleanest statistically significant result, with both mean returns (p = 0.030) and risk (p = 0.002) shifting significantly, and NIFTY IT the worst-hit sector given its UK revenue exposure. The Russia–Ukraine conflict was the only event to produce a positive CAAR (+0.175), as Metal and infrastructure-linked sectors benefited from rising commodity prices. The Hindenburg Report caused a contained but persistent effect, significantly raising NIFTY PSU Bank volatility (+1.442, p = 0.013). The Global Trade War produced the most muted impact, with neither returns nor risk changing significantly. NIFTY FMCG and NIFTY Pharma emerged as the most resilient sectors throughout, while NIFTY Financial Services, Private Bank, Realty, and Media were consistently the most vulnerable. The findings indicate that the sectoral footprint of a global shock depends on its nature — trade, political, epidemiological, geopolitical, or reputational — and offer practical guidance for investors seeking defensive positioning and for regulators designing event-response frameworks.
Keywords
Event Study Methodology, Abnormal Returns, CAAR, NSE Sectoral Indices, Market Volatility, Global Shocks, Indian Stock Market
How to cite this paper
@article{1719923,
author = {Bhumika S H, Dr. Vijay K S},
title = {Impact of Global Events on the Indian Stock Market},
journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
year = {2026},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {2080-2094},
issn = {2456-8880},
url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1719923.pdf},
abstract = {This study examines how eleven NSE sectoral indices — Auto, Bank, FMCG, IT, Media, Metal, Pharma, Realty, Financial Services, Private Bank, and PSU Bank — responded to five major global events: the US–China Trade War (2018), Brexit (2016), the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020), the Russia–Ukraine Conflict (2022), and the Hindenburg Research Report on the Adani Group (2023). Using an Event Study Methodology over a 31-day window [−15, 0, +15], the study computes Average Abnormal Returns (AAR) and Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CAAR), with paired t-tests assessing the statistical significance of changes in mean returns and risk. COVID-19 produced the most severe disruption, with CAAR falling to −0.173 and volatility spiking across every sector — NIFTY Private Bank's standard deviation rose from 1.76 to 6.96. Brexit generated the cleanest statistically significant result, with both mean returns (p = 0.030) and risk (p = 0.002) shifting significantly, and NIFTY IT the worst-hit sector given its UK revenue exposure. The Russia–Ukraine conflict was the only event to produce a positive CAAR (+0.175), as Metal and infrastructure-linked sectors benefited from rising commodity prices. The Hindenburg Report caused a contained but persistent effect, significantly raising NIFTY PSU Bank volatility (+1.442, p = 0.013). The Global Trade War produced the most muted impact, with neither returns nor risk changing significantly. NIFTY FMCG and NIFTY Pharma emerged as the most resilient sectors throughout, while NIFTY Financial Services, Private Bank, Realty, and Media were consistently the most vulnerable. The findings indicate that the sectoral footprint of a global shock depends on its nature — trade, political, epidemiological, geopolitical, or reputational — and offer practical guidance for investors seeking defensive positioning and for regulators designing event-response frameworks.},
keywords = {Event Study Methodology, Abnormal Returns, CAAR, NSE Sectoral Indices, Market Volatility, Global Shocks, Indian Stock Market},
month = {July},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV10I1-1719923}
}