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A Study on Randomness of Cryptocurrency Market: Evidence from Leading Cryptocurrencies
Subject area: Management and Commerce · Area of research: Finance
DOI: https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV10I2-1720306
Abstract
Cryptocurrencies have emerged as a prominent asset class characterized by rapid price fluctuations, growing institutional participation, and continuing debate over whether their price movements are random or predictable. This study examines the randomness and weak-form market efficiency of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance Coin, XRP, USD Coin, Solana, TRON, Dogecoin, and Hype liquid—using daily closing price data from April 2016 to March 2026 (subject to data availability for each coin). Daily log returns were tested using Descriptive Statistics, the Jarque–Bera test of normality, the Wald–Wolfowitz Run Test, and the Autocorrelation Test. The results show that daily returns for all selected cryptocurrencies are non-normally distributed, exhibiting excess kurtosis and skewness. The Run Test results indicate that seven of the ten cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance Coin, XRP, USD Coin, and Dogecoin—do not follow a random walk, while Solana, TRON, and Hype liquid exhibit randomness consistent with weak-form efficiency. However, the Autocorrelation Test reveals strong positive serial correlation across all ten cryptocurrencies, indicating that the market falls short of weak-form efficiency. The study concludes that the cryptocurrency market provides mixed and largely inefficient evidence with respect to the Random Walk Hypothesis, implying that historical price information may retain some predictive value for investors.
Keywords
Cryptocurrency, Random Walk Hypothesis, Market Efficiency, Run Test, Autocorrelation, Jarque–Bera Test, Bitcoin
How to cite this paper
@article{1720306,
author = {Zeba Kousar, Mallesha L},
title = {A Study on Randomness of Cryptocurrency Market: Evidence from Leading Cryptocurrencies},
journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
year = {2026},
volume = {10},
number = {2},
pages = {173-179},
issn = {2456-8880},
url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1720306.pdf},
abstract = {Cryptocurrencies have emerged as a prominent asset class characterized by rapid price fluctuations, growing institutional participation, and continuing debate over whether their price movements are random or predictable. This study examines the randomness and weak-form market efficiency of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance Coin, XRP, USD Coin, Solana, TRON, Dogecoin, and Hype liquid—using daily closing price data from April 2016 to March 2026 (subject to data availability for each coin). Daily log returns were tested using Descriptive Statistics, the Jarque–Bera test of normality, the Wald–Wolfowitz Run Test, and the Autocorrelation Test. The results show that daily returns for all selected cryptocurrencies are non-normally distributed, exhibiting excess kurtosis and skewness. The Run Test results indicate that seven of the ten cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance Coin, XRP, USD Coin, and Dogecoin—do not follow a random walk, while Solana, TRON, and Hype liquid exhibit randomness consistent with weak-form efficiency. However, the Autocorrelation Test reveals strong positive serial correlation across all ten cryptocurrencies, indicating that the market falls short of weak-form efficiency. The study concludes that the cryptocurrency market provides mixed and largely inefficient evidence with respect to the Random Walk Hypothesis, implying that historical price information may retain some predictive value for investors.},
keywords = {Cryptocurrency, Random Walk Hypothesis, Market Efficiency, Run Test, Autocorrelation, Jarque–Bera Test, Bitcoin},
month = {August},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV10I2-1720306}
}