Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Variables On Agricultural Sector Credit in Nigeria (1981–2024)

References

[1] S. Shyamoli and D. Arghadeep, “Sustainability and agriculture: A futuristic coherent environmental ethical technique,” Strad Research, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 93–103, 2022.

[2] R. Osabohien, N. Adeleye, and T. Dei Alwis, “Social protection policies and agricultural output in ECOWAS: Empirical evidence from panel data,” Heliyon, vol. 6, no. 9, Art. no. e04891, 2020.

[3] International Food Policy Research Institute, “Unlocking the potential of African agriculture: Opportunities and challenges,” IFPRI, 2021. IFPRI

[4] A. A. Chandio, “Factors influencing agricultural productivity in developing countries: A systematic review,” Journal of Agricultural Studies, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 123–135, 2019.

[5] World Bank, World Development Report: Agriculture for Development. Washington, DC, USA: World Bank, 2022.

[6] M. S. Igben and E. O. Eyo, Agricultural Economics: An Introduction to Basic Concepts and Principles. Uyo, Nigeria: Best Print Publishers, 2002.

[7] F. O. Nwosu, N. N. O. Oguoma, N. G. Ben-Chendo, and A. Henry-Ukoha, “The agricultural credit guarantee scheme: Its roles, problems and prospects in Nigeria’s quest for agricultural development,” Researcher, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 87–90, 2010.

[8] A. A. Umoren, E. J. Udoh, and S. B. Akpan, “Analysis of loan default among agricultural credit guarantee scheme (ACGS) loan beneficiaries in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria,” African Journal of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 120–128, 2014.

[9] N. Yoshino and F. Taghizadeh-Hesary, “Optimal credit guarantee ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises financing: Evidence from Asia,” Economic Analysis and Policy, vol. 62, pp. 342–356, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.eap.2018.09.011. ScienceDirect

[10] M. Gudger, Credit Guarantees: An Assessment of the State of Knowledge and New Avenues of Research. Rome, Italy: FAO, 1996.

[11] Central Bank of Nigeria, Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme: Annual Report and Statement of Account, Dec. 2000. Abuja, Nigeria: CBN, 2000.

[12] Central Bank of Nigeria, Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Activities, January–December 2018. Abuja, Nigeria: Development Finance Department, CBN, 2018.

[13] A. Abdulsalam, “The socio-economic effects of youth unemployment: The case of Yola South Local Government Area, Adamawa State,” International Journal of Social Sciences and Management Research, vol. 4, no. 5, pp. 12–35, 2018.

[14] A. O. Adegbemi, “Macroeconomic dynamics and the manufacturing output in Nigeria,” Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 13–25, 2018.

[15] International Monetary Fund, “Interest rate,” IMF, 2025.

[16] H. A. Alafif, “Interest rate and some of its applications,” Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics, vol. 11, no. 6, pp. 1557–1569, 2023, doi: 10.4236/jamp.2023.116102. Scientific Research Publishing

[17] Central Bank of Nigeria, Statistical Bulletin. Abuja, Nigeria: CBN, 2016.

[18] A. S. Iliyasu, “An empirical analysis of the impact of interest rate on agriculture in Nigeria,” Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, vol. 10, no. 22, pp. 106–115, 2019.

[19] Central Bank of Nigeria, Statistical Bulletin. Abuja, Nigeria: CBN, 2017.

[20] International Monetary Fund, “Consumer Price Index (CPI) – IMF Data,” IMF, 2024. IMF Data

[21] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index (CPI),” 2023. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

[22] E. Chukwuemeka and U. Ibekwe, “Effect of exchange rate on agricultural sector output in Nigeria (1987–2019),” International Journal of Economic Development Policies, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 45–58, 2020.

[23] Central Bank of Nigeria, “The conduct of monetary policy,” CBN, 2022. Central Bank of Nigeria

[24] F. S. Mishkin and S. Eakins, Financial Markets and Institutions, 9th ed. Harlow, U.K.: Pearson, 2021.

[25] O. A. Olatunji and A. S. Adebayo, “The impact of monetary policy on agricultural productivity and food prices in Nigeria,” ABUAD Journal of Sustainable Development, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 45–60, 2024.

[26] O. Utuk, A. B. Udo, B. L. Akpan, E. E. Bassey, and I. M. Okon, “Effect of climate change on agricultural sector: Evidence from Nigeria,” Wukari International Studies Journal, vol. 8, no. 5, pp. 92–100, 2024.

[27] T. Mudau and D. Mokatsanyane, “Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on agricultural derivatives performance in the SAFEX market,” Finance, Accounting and Business Analysis, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 17–29, 2025.

[28] B. M. Abdullahi, “The impact of monetary policy on agricultural productivity and food prices in Nigeria: A time-series analysis,” African Journal of Stability & Development, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 291–315, 2024.

[29] D. T. Bonny and E. P. Ayunku, “The impact of selected macroeconomic variables on agricultural sector performance in Nigeria,” African Journal of Management and Business Research, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 308–325, 2024, doi: 10.62154/ajmbr.2024.017.010525.

[30] A. A. Okuduwor, G. L. Tuaneh, M. O. Obe-Nwaka, and E. Agbenyi, “Effects of some macroeconomic variables on agricultural output: Implication for food security in Nigeria,” AKSU Journal of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 27–33, 2023.

[31] O. H. Chiogor, J. Gylych, and O. O. Alabi, “Macroeconomic impact of agricultural financing reforms: A computable general equilibrium analysis of Nigeria,” Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 98–107, 2023.

[32] E. O. Eyo, M. A. Nwaogu, and M. E. Agenson, “Agricultural credit guarantee in Nigeria and the uncertainties of the macroeconomic environment,” International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 20–29, 2020.

[33] O. P. Tiamiyu, R. W. Bwala, and O. O. Alawole, “The impact of agricultural credit guarantee scheme on Nigeria’s GDP: A sectoral approach,” Journal of Agricultural Finance and Policy, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 89–99, 2017.

[34] L. O. Onyishi, C. J. Arene, and C. M. Ifiorah, “Effects of interest rate deregulation on agricultural finance and growth in Nigeria,” Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 1–8, 2015.

[35] S. B. Akpan, O. D. Akpan, and U. A. Essien, “Government agricultural credit policy and macroeconomic fundamentals: A case study of agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund in Nigeria,” Public Policy and Administration Research, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 61–75, 2012.

[36] D. C. Okeke and O. R. Okeke, “Macroeconomic variables and agricultural output in Nigeria,” Medicon Agriculture & Environmental Sciences, vol. 2, no. 6, pp. 43–49, 2022.

[37] J. H. Stock and M. W. Watson, “A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,” Econometrica, vol. 61, pp. 783–820, 1993, doi: 10.2307/2951763. JSTOR

[38] W. Newey and K. West, “Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation,” Review of Economic Studies, vol. 61, pp. 631–653, 1994, doi: 10.2307/2297912. Oxford Academic

@article{1723325,
      author = {Simnom Bernice Bako},
      title = {Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Variables On Agricultural Sector Credit in Nigeria (1981–2024)},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2026},
      volume = {10},
      number = {3},
      pages = {2675-2682},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1723325.pdf},
      abstract = {The agricultural sector remains a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy, contributing to national output, employment, food security, and domestic and export market activities. However, agricultural credit remains constrained by financing costs and macroeconomic instability. This study examined the effects of minimum lending rate by commercial banks to agriculture, monetary policy rate, average exchange rate, and consumer price index on agricultural sector credit in Nigeria over 1981–2024. Annual secondary data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2025), and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimator was employed to examine the long-run relationship among the variables. The results show that minimum lending rate is negatively related to agricultural sector credit, although the coefficient is statistically insignificant. Monetary policy rate also has a negative long-run relationship with agricultural sector credit. Exchange rate has a negative and statistically insignificant effect, while consumer price index has a positive and statistically significant long-run effect. Specifically, a one-percentage-point increase in minimum lending rate, monetary policy rate, exchange rate, and consumer price index is associated with approximately 0.057%, 0.221%, 0.001%, and 0.168% changes in agricultural sector credit, respectively, holding other variables constant. The study recommends measures that improve access to affordable agricultural credit, strengthen monetary-policy transmission, promote exchange-rate stability, and reduce input-price volatility.},
      keywords = {Agricultural credit, exchange rate, interest rate, monetary policy rate, consumer price index, Nigeria},
      month = {September},
  }