An Integrated Geospatial and Socio-economic Assessment of Flood Risk in North-western Nigeria Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

References

[1] Adefolalu, D. O. (1986). Rainfall trends in Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 37(4), 205–219. Springer

[2] bdussalam, A. F., Monaghan, A. J., Steinhoff, D. F., Dukic, V. M., Hayden, M. H., Hopson, T. M., Thornes, J. E., & Leckebusch, G. C. (2014). The impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: An assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations. Weather, Climate, and Society, 6(3), 371–379.

[3] Abu-hanifa, B., Abdussalam, A. F., Baba, S. U., Isa, Z., & Ugya, A. Y. (2025). A comprehensive review of flood monitoring and evaluation in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy and Water Resources, 9(4), 1741–1765. Springer

[4] Bello, A. A., Abua, M. A., Yelwa, S. A., Undiyaundeye, F. A., Iwara, A. I., Abutunghe, M. A., Bassey, B. J., Egbonyi, D. E., & Owalom, S. O. (2022). Geospatial Mapping of Areas at Risk to flood Along Sokoto. Environment and Ecology Research, 10(6), 806–823.

[5] Field, C. B. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability - Summary for Policymakers. <bound method Organization.get_name_with_acronym of <Organization: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change>>.

[6] Idris, M., Mustapha, A., & Komolafe, A. A. (2025). Application of GIS and MCDA in flood susceptibility modeling in Jigawa State. Nigeria. Water and Soil Management and Modeling, 5(4), 1–14. Water and Soil Management and Modeling

[7] Ibrahim, U. A., Alkali, A. N., Sanyaolu, B. O., & Usman, B. (2022). Nigerian Water Resources Management – An Overview. Arid Zone Journal of Engineering, Technology & Environment, 18(1), 23–30. AZOJETE

[8] Komolafe, A. A., Abdul-Azeez Adegboyega, S., Akinluyi, F. O., & Komolafe, A. A. (2015). A Review of Flood Risk Analysis in Nigeria.

[9] Muhammad, T. M., Mohammad, H. A., Abdullahi, B., Muktar, A., Usman, A. K., Iguisi, E. O., & Auwal, A. (2026). Assessment of Flood Risk and Adaptation Strategies in Hadejia River Basin, Nigeria. FUDMA Journal of Sciences, 10(2), 301–325. FUDMA Journal of Sciences

[10] Nnah, S. I., & Ikwueze, U. H. (2025). GIS Based Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment In Nigeria: Flooding, Erosion, And Desertification In Sudano-Sahelian Region, Northwest Nigeria. Zenodo

[11] Office of the Surveyor-General of the Federation. (n.d.). Retrieved September 29, 2026, from Office of the Surveyor-General of the Federation

[12] Tudunwada, I. Y., & Ahmad, A. (2026). Geospatial Profiling of Flood Victims and Associated Losses of Lives and Properties in the Aftermath Of 2022 Floods in Jigawa State, Northern Nigeria. FUDMA Journal of Sciences, 10(7), 16–26. FUDMA Journal of Sciences

@article{1723675,
      author = {Musa Muhammad Chindo, Asadullah Muhammad},
      title = {An Integrated Geospatial and Socio-economic Assessment of Flood Risk in North-western Nigeria Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2026},
      volume = {10},
      number = {4},
      pages = {389-405},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1723675.pdf},
      abstract = {Flood disasters have become increasingly frequent and severe in Nigeria, driven by a combination of climatic shifts and anthropogenic pressures. This research paper assesses flood risk vulnerability across the seven states of the Northwest geopolitical zone (Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, and Kaduna). Utilising a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), the study evaluates physical hazards—such as elevation, slope, and drainage density—alongside the vulnerability of the population determined by their exposure. The findings indicate that Kebbi and Sokoto have the highest flood hazard, largely due to their low-lying floodplains and proximity to major rivers. When exposure and socioeconomic vulnerability are considered, 27.75% of the region is classified as having very high flood risk, primarily across nine LGAs in Kebbi, two in Zamfara, and one in Sokoto. High flood risk is concentrated mainly in Kebbi (15 LGAs), Sokoto (19 LGAs), Kano (4 LGAs), and Jigawa (3 LGAs).},
      month = {October},
  }