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India Solar Transition | Scenario Analysis: Solar Deployment, Land Requirements and End-Of-Life PV Management in India: A Benchmarked Scenario Analysis for FY 2026–27 to FY 2039–40
Subject area: Science,Engineering and Technology · Area of research: Solar Capacity Expansion, Need for Recycling
Abstract
This paper examines how a high-deployment solar pathway could affect annual electricity supply, land occupation and planning for photovoltaic (PV) end-of-life management in India. The analysis combines official benchmarks with transparent scenario assumptions. India had 171.05 GW of installed solar capacity at 30 September 2026 (MNRE); the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) 2029–30 optimal mix study identifies approximately 292.6 GW of solar PV capacity and reports a 20th Electric Power Survey energy requirement of 2,279.7 TWh for that year. Extending capacity to 629 GW by FY 2039–40 is treated here as an illustrative scenario, not a government target. At a 21% capacity utilisation factor (CUF), this pathway yields about 1,157 TWh per year, or 31.2% of a separately assumed 5% annual demand-growth pathway from the CEA 2029–30 benchmark. A land-intensity assumption of 1.62 ha/MW for the non-rooftop share implies approximately 1.02 million ha of cumulative project footprint by FY 2039–40; this is a scenario estimate, not a parcel-level land-suitability assessment. Published India-specific modelling estimates cumulative PV waste by 2040 at 6.64 Mt under an early-loss business-as-usual case and 5.48 Mt under a regular-loss case. These are alternative model outputs and do not support a claim that 6 Mt/year of recycling capacity is required. A screening-level 50,000 t/year plant model produces a 6.5% base-case IRR and an NPV of about −₹41 crore at a 12% discount rate under flat annual EBITDA assumptions. Results indicate that the original draft’s detailed annual waste series and recycling-capacity gap claims are not reproducible from its cited sources. The paper provides a transparent framework and identifies the additional cohort, land and facility data needed for investment-grade estimates.
Keywords
solar photovoltaics; India; land occupation; electricity demand; PV waste; recycling; scenario analysis; project finance
References
[1] Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Government of India. Year-wise achievements: installed renewable energy capacity, cumulative achievements to 30 September 2026 [Internet]. [cited 2026 Oct 17]. Available from: https://mnre.gov.in/en/year-wise-achievement/
[2] Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Government of India. Report on Optimal Generation Capacity Mix for 2029–30, Version 2.0. New Delhi: CEA; 2023 [cited 2026 Oct 17]. Available from: https://cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/notification/2023/05/Optimal_mix_report__2029_30_Version_2.0__For_Uploading.pdf
[3] Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Government of India. Report on 20th Electric Power Survey of India, Volume I. New Delhi: CEA; 2022 [cited 2026 Oct 17]. Available from: https://cea.nic.in/ps___lf/report-on-twentieth-electric-power-survey-of-india-volume-i/?lang=en
[4] Sharma A, Mahajan P, Garg R. End-of-life solar photovoltaic panel waste management in India: forecasting and environmental impact assessment. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. 2024;21(2):1961–1980. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-023-04953-2
[5] Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Government of India. E-Waste (Management) Rules, 2022. G.S.R. 801(E); 2022 Nov 2 [cited 2026 Oct 17]. Available from: https://cpcb.nic.in/uploads/Projects/E-Waste/e-waste_rules_2022.pdf. See also: MNRE. Solar waste treatment under E-Waste (Management) Rules, 2022; 2023 Mar 14. Available from: https://www.pib.gov.in/Pressreleaseshare.aspx?PRID=1906920
How to cite this paper
@article{1724526,
author = {Neha Acharya, Rajendra Prasad N},
title = {India Solar Transition | Scenario Analysis: Solar Deployment, Land Requirements and End-Of-Life PV Management in India: A Benchmarked Scenario Analysis for FY 2026–27 to FY 2039–40},
journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
year = {2026},
volume = {10},
number = {5},
pages = {610-618},
issn = {2456-8880},
url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1724526.pdf},
abstract = {This paper examines how a high-deployment solar pathway could affect annual electricity supply, land occupation and planning for photovoltaic (PV) end-of-life management in India. The analysis combines official benchmarks with transparent scenario assumptions. India had 171.05 GW of installed solar capacity at 30 September 2026 (MNRE); the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) 2029–30 optimal mix study identifies approximately 292.6 GW of solar PV capacity and reports a 20th Electric Power Survey energy requirement of 2,279.7 TWh for that year. Extending capacity to 629 GW by FY 2039–40 is treated here as an illustrative scenario, not a government target. At a 21% capacity utilisation factor (CUF), this pathway yields about 1,157 TWh per year, or 31.2% of a separately assumed 5% annual demand-growth pathway from the CEA 2029–30 benchmark. A land-intensity assumption of 1.62 ha/MW for the non-rooftop share implies approximately 1.02 million ha of cumulative project footprint by FY 2039–40; this is a scenario estimate, not a parcel-level land-suitability assessment. Published India-specific modelling estimates cumulative PV waste by 2040 at 6.64 Mt under an early-loss business-as-usual case and 5.48 Mt under a regular-loss case. These are alternative model outputs and do not support a claim that 6 Mt/year of recycling capacity is required. A screening-level 50,000 t/year plant model produces a 6.5% base-case IRR and an NPV of about −₹41 crore at a 12% discount rate under flat annual EBITDA assumptions. Results indicate that the original draft’s detailed annual waste series and recycling-capacity gap claims are not reproducible from its cited sources. The paper provides a transparent framework and identifies the additional cohort, land and facility data needed for investment-grade estimates.},
keywords = {solar photovoltaics; India; land occupation; electricity demand; PV waste; recycling; scenario analysis; project finance},
month = {November},
}