Public Expenditure and Human Development in Nigeria

References

[1] Becker GS (1964). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education. National Bureau of Economic Research.

[2] Breusch TS (1978). Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models. Australian Economic Papers, 17(31), 334–355. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x

[3] Breusch TS, Pagan AR (1979). A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica, 47(5), 1287–1294. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911963

[4] Brown RL, Durbin J, Evans JM (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–192. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x

[5] Central Bank of Nigeria (2024). Statistical bulletin 2024. Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja.

[6] Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531

[7] Edeme RK, Nkalu CN, Ifelunini IA (2017). Distributional impact of public expenditure on human development in Nigeria. International Journal of Social Economics, 44(12), 1683–1693. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-05-2016-0152

[8] Eigbiremolen GO, Anaduaka US (2014). Human capital development and economic growth: The Nigeria experience. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 4(4), 25–35.

[9] Godfrey LG (1978). Testing against general autoregressive and moving average error models when the regressors include lagged dependent variables. Econometrica, 46(6), 1293–1301. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913829

[10] Ibrahim TM (2016). Human capital-growth nexus: The role of government spending on education and health in Nigeria (MPRA Paper No. 73712). University Library of Munich. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/73712/.

[11] Jarque CM, Bera AK (1987). A test for normality of observations and regression residuals. International Statistical Review, 55(2), 163–172. https://doi.org/10.2307/1403192

[12] Kairo CI, Mang NJ, Okeke A, Dura CA (2017). Government expenditure and human capital development in Nigeria: An auto-regressive distributed lagged model approach (ARDL). International Journal of Advanced Studies in Economics and Public Sector Management, 5(1), 143–158.

[13] Lawal WO, Anisere-Hameed RA (2026). Public expenditure and quality of life dynamics: The Nigerian perspective. Al-Hikmah Journal of Economics, 7(1). https://alhikmahuniversity.edu.ng/AJEC/index.php/journal/article/view/88.

[14] Madueke CM, Ozoh JN, Udedi UC, Ezenwobi NF, Nkamnebe OE (2026). Empirical analysis of human capital development and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Journal of Economic Studies, 23(1), 68–85.

[15] Mumuni S, Njong AM (2023). Public expenditure on education and health, governance and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Economics and Management, 45, 147–181. https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2023.45.08

[16] Nwezeaku NC, Akujuobi ABC (2015). Public expenditure and economic development in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 3(10), 499–506.

[17] Okon BE (2024). The impact of diversifying export structure on the reality of human development in Nigeria [Post-print]. HAL. https://hal.science/hal-05078550.

[18] Okoro FO, Onyejiuwa DC (2026). Government expenditure composition and human capital development in Nigeria [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/t9jqv_v1

[19] Omodero CO (2019). Government general spending and human development: A case study of Nigeria. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 8(1), 51–59. https://doi.org/10.2478/ajis-2019-0005

[20] Onabote AA, Ohwofasa BO, Ogunjumo RA (2023). Government sectoral spending and human development in Nigeria. Heliyon, 9(7), Article e17545.

[21] Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616

[22] Ramsey JB (1969). Tests for specification errors in classical linear least-squares regression analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 31(2), 350–371. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1969.tb00796.x

[23] Schultz TW (1961). Investment in human capital. The American Economic Review, 51(1), 1–17.

[24] Sen A (1985). Commodities and capabilities. North-Holland.

[25] Sen A (1999). Development as freedom. Oxford University Press.

[26] Sikayena I, Bentum-Ennin I, Andoh FK, Asravor RK (2022). Efficiency of government expenditure on health and education in sub-Saharan Africa. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), Article 2140905. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2140905

[27] Siyanbola AA, Adeniwura OO, Okuyelu G (2025). Public expenditure on human capital development in Nigeria. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Istočnom Sarajevu, 14(30). https://doi.org/10.7251/ZREFIS2530059S

[28] United Nations Development Programme (2025). Human development report 2025. UNDP, New York.

[29] Uzomba PC (2025). Public social services investments and Nigeria's life expectancy at birth: A review of short-run ARDL dynamics. Islamic University Journal of Social Sciences, 4(4), 290–317.

@article{1724836,
      author = {Dr. Jamilu Abdullahi Dangana},
      title = {Public Expenditure and Human Development in Nigeria},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2026},
      volume = {10},
      number = {5},
      pages = {1173-1189},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1724836.pdf},
      abstract = {This research empirically examined the effect of public expenditure on human development in Nigeria from 1990 to 2025. The study proxied public expenditure by public health expenditure, public education expenditure, public social service expenditure and public research and development expenditure, while human development was measured by the Human Development Index (HDI). The study was anchored on the Human Capital Theory and the Capability Approach. Annual time series data covering thirty-six years were used; the data were sourced from United Nations Development Programme and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The data were described using descriptive statistics and trend analysis, tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) approach and examined for multicollinearity using the variance inflation factor. The ARDL bounds cointegration test was used to establish the long run relationship among the variables, while the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and its error correction form were used to estimate the long-run and short-run parameters. The results showed that the variables have mixed stationarity of I(0) and I(1) and that a long-run relationship exists among them. Also public education expenditure, public social service expenditure and public research and development expenditure have positive and significant effects on the Human Development Index in the long run, while public health expenditure has a negative and significant effect. The error correction coefficient (-0.6068) shows that about 61 percent of any disequilibrium is corrected within one year. The study concluded that public expenditure significantly drives human development in Nigeria. The study recommended, among others, that government should raise the share of education spending towards the UNESCO benchmark, and should reform the management of public health spending so that allocations reach primary health care facilities and translate into better health outcomes.},
      keywords = {Public Expenditure; Human Development Index; health expenditure; education expenditure; public social service expenditure; public research and development expenditure},
      month = {November},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/ire1724836}
  }