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Efficient Method for Estimating the Presence of a Viral Infectious Disease and How to Control Its Rapid Spread in a Population
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1703914 Vol 6 · Issue 6 Download Paper

Efficient Method for Estimating the Presence of a Viral Infectious Disease and How to Control Its Rapid Spread in a Population

Sirengo John Luca

Subject area: Science,Engineering and Technology  ·  Area of research: Applied Statistics

Abstract

Lack of sufficient mass testing tools for viral infectious diseases such as Influenza, common cold, covid-19, mumps, Ebola and many others has contributed to the accelerated spread of the epidemics. Containment of this rapid viral spread requires an extensive testing of the affected individuals in any given society. Current tests for infectious diseases are administered on one ? at ? a ? time basis. These tests are expensive and are limited due to the lack of resources and time. This paper provides a very simple and efficient testing strategy which can significantly reduce the total number of tests compared to individual tests of the entire population. It has been observed that multistage group testing strategy is more economical and efficient in detecting the presence of the virus in a mixed sample of specimens. Multistage method starts by choosing a group from the population to be tested, performing a test on the combined sample from the entire group, and progressively splitting the group further into subgroups. In this paper we develop an adaptive multistage group testing design with the view of studying the behavior of the efficiency of the estimator as the number of stages increases. The method of maximum likelihood estimator is discussed and for comparison with other established estimators, properties of the constructed estimator have also been discussed. From the results it is evident that the asymptotic relative efficiency increases with each additional stage. This proposed design is efficient and simple to be deployed in containment of any infectious disease.

Keywords

Group testing, multistage, asymptotic relative efficiency.

References

[1] Billinggsley P. (1995). Probability and measure Third Edition. John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

[2] Brookmeyer, R. (1999). Analysis of multistage pooling studies of biological specimens for estimating disease incidence and prevalence. Biometrics55, 608 – 612.

[3] Dorfman, R. 1943. The detection of defective members of large population. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 14, 436-440.

[4] Gastwirth. J. L and Hammick. P.A (1989). Estimation of the prevalence of a rare disease, preserving the anonymity of the subject by group testing; application estimating the prevalence of Aids antibodies in blood donors. Journal of statistical planning and inference. 22, 15 27.

[5] Hughes-Oliver M J., and Rosenberger F. W., (2000). Efficient estimation of multiple rare traits. Biometrika, 87, 2, 315 - 327

[6] Hughes-Oliver and Shallow. W.H (1994). A two-stage adaptive group design for group testing of only one trait. American statistical association, 89, 982 – 993.

[7] Nyongesa. K.L (2004). Multistage group testing procedure (batch screening). Communication in statistics-simulation and computation, 33, 621-637.

[8] Tebbs M.J. and Swallow, H.W. 2003. Estimating ordered binomial proportions with the use of group testing. Biometrika, 90, 471-477.

[9] “Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”, The Washington post”. https://wapo.st/2wLMbzI. Accessed: 2020-04-28.

[10] C. Fraser, S. Riley, and N. M. Ferguson (2004). “Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 101, no. 16, pp. 6146–6151.

[11] “Why widespread coronavirus testing isn’t coming anytime soon, The New Yorker.” https://bit.ly/3dCAHz9. Accessed: 2020-04-28.

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How to cite this paper

Sirengo John Luca "Efficient Method for Estimating the Presence of a Viral Infectious Disease and How to Control Its Rapid Spread in a Population" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 6 Issue 6 2022 Page 61-66
Sirengo John Luca "Efficient Method for Estimating the Presence of a Viral Infectious Disease and How to Control Its Rapid Spread in a Population" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, vol. 6, no. 6, Dec. 2022
Sirengo John Luca (2022). Efficient Method for Estimating the Presence of a Viral Infectious Disease and How to Control Its Rapid Spread in a Population. Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 6(6).
Sirengo John Luca "Efficient Method for Estimating the Presence of a Viral Infectious Disease and How to Control Its Rapid Spread in a Population" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, vol. 6, no. 6, Dec. 2022.
@article{1703914,
      author = {Sirengo John Luca},
      title = {Efficient Method for Estimating the Presence of a Viral Infectious Disease and How to Control Its Rapid  Spread in a Population},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2022},
      volume = {6},
      number = {6},
      pages = {61-66},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/17039141.pdf},
      abstract = {Lack of sufficient mass testing tools for viral infectious diseases such as Influenza, common cold, covid-19, mumps, Ebola and many others has contributed to the accelerated spread of the epidemics. Containment of this rapid viral spread requires an extensive testing of the affected individuals in any given society. Current tests for infectious diseases are administered on one ? at ? a ? time basis. These tests are expensive and are limited due to the lack of resources and time. This paper provides a very simple and efficient testing strategy which can significantly reduce the total number of tests compared to individual tests of the entire population. It has been observed that multistage group testing strategy is more economical and efficient in detecting the presence of the virus in a mixed sample of specimens. Multistage method starts by choosing a group from the population to be tested, performing a test on the combined sample from the entire group, and progressively splitting the group further into subgroups. In this paper we develop an adaptive multistage group testing design with the view of studying the behavior of the efficiency of the estimator as the number of stages increases. The method of maximum likelihood estimator is discussed and for comparison with other established estimators, properties of the constructed estimator have also been discussed. From the results it is evident that the asymptotic relative efficiency increases with each additional stage. This proposed design is efficient and simple to be deployed in containment of any infectious disease.},
      keywords = {Group testing, multistage, asymptotic relative efficiency.},
      month = {December},
  }