Economic Impact of COVID-19 On Price and Employment: A Regression Analysis of Nigeria's Experience (2020-2024)
Abstract
This study investigates the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on price stability and employment dynamics in Nigeria from 2020 to 2024 using quantitative econometric techniques. Adopting an ex-post facto research design, the study employs secondary data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), World Bank, and International Labour Organization (ILO). Time-series regression models, including the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), were applied to evaluate both short- and long-run relationships among inflation, unemployment, food and fuel prices, and policy interventions. Results reveal that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased inflation by approximately 5.2 percentage points, driven largely by food and fuel price escalation. Unemployment also rose by 1.2 percentage points, indicating widespread labor market disruptions. The positive relationship between inflation and unemployment demonstrates a departure from the traditional Phillips curve, reflecting stagflationary conditions during the pandemic. Furthermore, the interaction effects show that COVID-19 amplified both inflationary pressures and employment shocks. However, from 2022 onward, gradual recovery was evident, with unemployment declining to 3.07% in 2023 as GDP growth improved. The study concludes that the COVID-19 crisis reshaped Nigeria’s macroeconomic landscape by weakening the traditional inflation-employment nexus and exposing structural vulnerabilities in price and labor systems. It recommends strengthening fiscal coordination, expanding social protection, and stabilizing energy prices to cushion future economic shocks and sustain post-pandemic recovery.
Keywords
COVID-19, Inflation, Unemployment, Regression Analysis, Price Dynamics, Nigeria Economy
Citations
IRE Journals:
Audi Najib Isyaku, Saidu Rabo Yahaya, Yahaya Muhammad Musa, Umaru Sani "Economic Impact of COVID-19 On Price and Employment: A Regression Analysis of Nigeria's Experience (2020-2024)" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 9 Issue 8 2026 Page 1203-1211 https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I8-1714342
IEEE:
Audi Najib Isyaku, Saidu Rabo Yahaya, Yahaya Muhammad Musa, Umaru Sani
"Economic Impact of COVID-19 On Price and Employment: A Regression Analysis of Nigeria's Experience (2020-2024)" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 9(8) https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I8-1714342
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