Measuring And Forecasting Cost Efficiency Of Vietnamese Commercial Banks: Past-Present-Future With Resampling Models
Abstract
This study applied data envelopment analysis (DEA) Past-Present-Future based resampling model to measures and forecast the performance of 24 Vietnamese commercial banks in term of cost efficiency. Data of the past and the present years from 2014 to 2018 were collected and analyzed. Firstly, we employed DEA super slack-base measure model (super-SBM) to measure cost efficiency over period 2014-2018. Secondly, DEA Past-Present based resampling method was applied to measure cost efficiency for year 2018 along with its 95% confidence interval with 500 replicas and 5000 replicas to determine how many replicas is suitable for this study. Finally, the Past-Present-Future based resampling method was used to forecast the future data for inputs, outputs and cost efficiency score for future year 2019-2021.Findings of this study reveals that the average cost efficiency score of 24 selected banks were around 0.7 to 0.8 which implies that these commercial banks are quite far from the efficient frontier and are inefficient in term of cost. In addition, efficiency score of the future years will be lower than those of the present year. Moreover, the findings of this study also indicated the wide gap between efficiency scores of different banks. However, in the future, this gap will be narrowed. The main contribution of this study is to provide an evaluation and forecast of cost efficiency for Vietnamese commercial banks.
Keywords
cost efficiency; DEA super-SBM, Past-Present-Future based resampling, Vietnamese commercial banks
Citations
IRE Journals:
Lai-Wang Wang , Ke-Duc Le , Thi-Duong Nguyen
"Measuring And Forecasting Cost Efficiency Of Vietnamese Commercial Banks: Past-Present-Future With Resampling Models" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 3 Issue 5 2019 Page 89-106
IEEE:
Lai-Wang Wang , Ke-Duc Le , Thi-Duong Nguyen
"Measuring And Forecasting Cost Efficiency Of Vietnamese Commercial Banks: Past-Present-Future With Resampling Models" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 3(5)
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