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Quota Compliance in The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma: The Role of Trigger Strategies and Discount Factors

Geoffrey Nyasimi Dr. Yasin Kuso Ghabon

Subject area: Management and Commerce  ·  Area of research: Economics Game Theory

Abstract

This paper examines quota adherence among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) using the lens of repeated game theory, particularly the repeated prisoner's dilemma. OPEC's collective efforts to manage oil production face challenges as individual members have incentives to defect for short-term gains. This study analyzes how trigger strategies and discount factors influence compliance behavior. It finds that credible punishment mechanisms and sufficiently high discount factors are key to sustaining cooperation. Both theoretical insights and empirical observations are integrated to assess the strategic behavior of OPEC member states.

Keywords

Collusion, Discount factor, Game theory, OPEC, Quota compliance, Repeated games, Trigger strategies.

References

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[8] Kisswani, K. M. (2017). Do OPEC Announcements Influence Oil Prices? Energy Policy, 111, 25–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.08.020

[9] Okullo, S., & Reynes, F. (2016). Imperfect Information and Oil Production Adjustment Decisions in OPEC: A Production Target Rule. Energy Economics, 59, 60–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.06.013

[10] Osborne, M. J., & Rubinstein, A. (1994). A Course in Game Theory. MIT Press.

[11] Smith, J. L. (2005). Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis. The Energy Journal, 26(1), 51–82. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No1-3

[12] Smith, J. L. (2009). World Oil: Market or Mayhem? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(3), 145–164. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.23.3.145

How to cite this paper

Geoffrey Nyasimi, Dr. Yasin Kuso Ghabon "Quota Compliance in The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma: The Role of Trigger Strategies and Discount Factors" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 8 Issue 11 2025 Page 1644-1649
Geoffrey Nyasimi, Dr. Yasin Kuso Ghabon "Quota Compliance in The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma: The Role of Trigger Strategies and Discount Factors" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, vol. 8, no. 11, May. 2025
Geoffrey Nyasimi, Dr. Yasin Kuso Ghabon (2025). Quota Compliance in The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma: The Role of Trigger Strategies and Discount Factors. Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 8(11).
Geoffrey Nyasimi, Dr. Yasin Kuso Ghabon "Quota Compliance in The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma: The Role of Trigger Strategies and Discount Factors" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, vol. 8, no. 11, May. 2025.
@article{1708703,
      author = {Geoffrey Nyasimi, Dr. Yasin Kuso Ghabon},
      title = {Quota Compliance in The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma: The Role of Trigger Strategies and Discount Factors},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2025},
      volume = {8},
      number = {11},
      pages = {1644-1649},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1708703.pdf},
      abstract = {This paper examines quota adherence among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) using the lens of repeated game theory, particularly the repeated prisoner's dilemma. OPEC's collective efforts to manage oil production face challenges as individual members have incentives to defect for short-term gains. This study analyzes how trigger strategies and discount factors influence compliance behavior. It finds that credible punishment mechanisms and sufficiently high discount factors are key to sustaining cooperation. Both theoretical insights and empirical observations are integrated to assess the strategic behavior of OPEC member states.},
      keywords = {Collusion, Discount factor, Game theory, OPEC, Quota compliance, Repeated games, Trigger strategies.},
      month = {May},
  }