Assessment of Mathematical Modeling Techniques for Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability and Quality: A SWAT-SEIR Framework Validation Study

• Author(s): Nyongesa Fatuma Nandaha ; Andanje Mulambula ; Martha Muthoni Konje
• Paper ID: 1709730
• Page: 866-870
• Published Date: 22-07-2025
• Published In: Iconic Research And Engineering Journals
• Publisher: IRE Journals
• e-ISSN: 2456-8880
• Volume/Issue: Volume 9 Issue 1 July-2025

Abstract

Accurate prediction of climate change impacts on water resources requires robust mathematical modeling techniques with validated performance across multiple scales. This study assesses the accuracy and reliability of the integrated SWAT-SEIR modeling framework for predicting water availability and quality under changing climate conditions in the Lake Victoria Basin. Model validation employed comprehensive statistical measures including Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, coefficient of determination, and uncertainty analysis across 15-year datasets. Results demonstrate excellent predictive accuracy with NSE values of 0.85 for streamflow, 0.63 for total nitrogen, and 0.67 for dissolved oxygen during independent validation periods. Temporal transferability analysis achieved correlation coefficients of 0.89 for monthly predictions. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis revealed prediction uncertainties of ±18% for water availability and ±25% for water quality under baseline conditions. The integrated framework outperformed traditional SWAT-only approaches by 23% for water quality predictions while maintaining comparable hydrological accuracy. Cross-validation confirmed model reliability with consistent performance across wet, normal, and dry periods. These findings establish the SWAT-SEIR framework as a reliable tool for climate change impact assessment in tropical water systems.

Keywords

Model Validation, Predictive Accuracy, Uncertainty Quantification, Climate Impact Assessment

Citations

IRE Journals:
Nyongesa Fatuma Nandaha , Andanje Mulambula , Martha Muthoni Konje "Assessment of Mathematical Modeling Techniques for Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability and Quality: A SWAT-SEIR Framework Validation Study" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 9 Issue 1 2025 Page 866-870

IEEE:
Nyongesa Fatuma Nandaha , Andanje Mulambula , Martha Muthoni Konje "Assessment of Mathematical Modeling Techniques for Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability and Quality: A SWAT-SEIR Framework Validation Study" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 9(1)