International Peer-Reviewed JournalOpen AccessISSN 2456-8880
irejournals@gmail.com+91-7433024337

Home / Current Issue / Paper 1709946

1709946 Vol 4 · Issue 4 Download Paper

Time-Series Modeling of Methane Emission Events Using Machine Learning Forecasting Algorithms

Semiu Temidayo Fasasi Oluwapelumi Joseph Adebowale Abdulmaliq Abdulsalam Zamathula Queen Sikhakhane Nwokediegwu

Subject area: Science,Engineering and Technology  ·  Area of research: Methane Emissions

Abstract

Methane is a significant contributor to global warming, necessitating accurate monitoring and forecasting of its emissions to inform effective mitigation strategies. This paper investigates the application of machine learning algorithms for time-series modeling of methane emission events, addressing the challenges posed by the complex, non-linear, and noisy nature of environmental data. A comprehensive methodology is developed, incorporating advanced data preprocessing techniques and the evaluation of multiple forecasting models, including Long Short-Term Memory networks and ensemble methods such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting. The comparative analysis demonstrates that these machine learning approaches outperform traditional statistical methods in capturing temporal dependencies and episodic emission spikes. Furthermore, the inclusion of contextual environmental variables enhances prediction accuracy and interpretability. The study highlights the potential of machine learning to provide reliable, actionable forecasts that support proactive environmental monitoring, regulatory compliance, and emission reduction efforts. Key challenges such as data quality, model interpretability, and computational demands are discussed, along with recommendations for future research focusing on multimodal data integration and adaptive learning frameworks. This work contributes to advancing data-driven approaches for methane emission forecasting, offering valuable insights for environmental scientists and policymakers engaged in climate change mitigation.

Keywords

Methane Emissions, Time-Series Forecasting, Machine Learning, Long Short-Term Memory, Environmental Monitoring, Emission Prediction

References

[1] ADEWOYIN, M. A., OGUNNOWO, E. O., FIEMOTONGHA, J. E., IGUNMA, T. O. & ADELEKE, A. K. 2020a. Advances in Thermofluid Simulation for Heat Transfer Optimization in Compact Mechanical Devices.

[2] ADEWOYIN, M. A., OGUNNOWO, E. O., FIEMOTONGHA, J. E., IGUNMA, T. O. & ADELEKE, A. K. 2020b. A Conceptual Framework for Dynamic Mechanical Analysis in High-Performance Material Selection.

[3] ALEXANDROPOULOS, S. -A. N., KOTSIANTIS, S. B. & VRAHATIS, M. N. 2019. Data preprocessing in predictive data mining. The Knowledge Engineering Review, 34, e1.

[4] ARIENTI, J. H. L. 2020. Time Series Forecasting Applied to an Energy Management System‐A Comparison Between Deep Learning Models and Other Machine Learning Models. Universidade NOVA de Lisboa (Portugal).

[5] ARNAUDO, E., FARASIN, A. & ROSSI, C. 2020. A comparative analysis for air quality estimation from traffic and meteorological data. Applied Sciences, 10, 4587.

[6] AUSUBEL, J. H., GRÜBLER, A. & NAKICENOVIC, N. 1988. Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy. Climatic Change, 12, 245-263.

[7] BALCOMBE, P., ANDERSON, K., SPEIRS, J., BRANDON, N. & HAWKES, A. 2017. The natural gas supply chain: the importance of methane and carbon dioxide emissions. ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, 5, 3-20.

[8] BALCOMBE, P., SPEIRS, J. F., BRANDON, N. P. & HAWKES, A. D. 2018. Methane emissions: choosing the right climate metric and time horizon. Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts, 20, 1323-1339.

[9] BONTEMPI, G., BEN TAIEB, S. & LE BORGNE, Y.-A. 2012. Machine learning strategies for time series forecasting. European Big Data Management and Analytics Summer School. Springer.

[10] BOPPINITI, S. T. 2020. Big Data Meets Machine Learning: Strategies for Efficient Data Processing and Analysis in Large Datasets. International Journal of Creative Research In Computer Technology and Design, 2.

[11] CALLENS, A., MORICHON, D., ABADIE, S., DELPEY, M. & LIQUET, B. 2020. Using Random forest and Gradient boosting trees to improve wave forecast at a specific location. Applied Ocean Research, 104, 102339.

[12] CHAURASIA, V. & PAL, S. 2020. Applications of machine learning techniques to predict diagnostic breast cancer. SN Computer Science, 1, 270.

[13] DEAN, J. F., MIDDELBURG, J. J., RÖCKMANN, T., AERTS, R., BLAUW, L. G., EGGER, M., JETTEN, M. S., DE JONG, A. E., MEISEL, O. H. & RASIGRAF, O. 2018. Methane feedbacks to the global climate system in a warmer world. Reviews of Geophysics, 56, 207-250.

[14] DONG, Y., MA, X., MA, C. & WANG, J. 2016. Research and application of a hybrid forecasting model based on data decomposition for electrical load forecasting. Energies, 9, 1050.

[15] EYINADE, W., EZEILO, O. J. & OGUNDEJI, I. A. 2020. A Treasury Management Model for Predicting Liquidity Risk in Dynamic Emerging Market Energy Sectors.

[16] FEDERICO, A., SERRA, A., HA, M. K., KOHONEN, P., CHOI, J.-S., LIAMPA, I., NYMARK, P., SANABRIA, N., CATTELANI, L. & FRATELLO, M. 2020. Transcriptomics in toxicogenomics, part II: preprocessing and differential expression analysis for high quality data. Nanomaterials, 10, 903.

[17] FOX, T. A., BARCHYN, T. E., RISK, D., RAVIKUMAR, A. P. & HUGENHOLTZ, C. H. 2019. A review of close-range and screening technologies for mitigating fugitive methane emissions in upstream oil and gas. Environmental Research Letters, 14, 053002.

[18] FREDENSLUND, A. M., HINGE, J., HOLMGREN, M. A., RASMUSSEN, S. G. & SCHEUTZ, C. 2018. On-site and ground-based remote sensing measurements of methane emissions from four biogas plants: A comparison study. Bioresource technology, 270, 88-95.

[19] GBABO, E. Y., OKENWA, O. K. & CHIMA, P. E. Constructing AI-Enabled Compliance Automation Models for Real-Time Regulatory Reporting in Energy Systems.

[20] GBABO, E. Y., OKENWA, O. K. & CHIMA, P. E. Integrating CDM Regulations into Role- Based Compliance Models for Energy Infrastructure Projects.

[21] GIBERT, K., SÀNCHEZ –MARRÈ, M. & IZQUIERDO, J. 2016. A survey on pre- processing techniques: Relevant issues in the context of environmental data mining. Ai Communications, 29, 627-663.

[22] HAN, Z., ZHAO, J., LEUNG, H., MA, K. F. & WANG, W. 2019. A review of deep learning models for time series prediction. IEEE Sensors Journal, 21, 7833-7848.

[23] HOLMES, C. D., PRATHER, M. J., SØVDE, O. & MYHRE, G. 2013. Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 285- 302.

[24] HOWARTH, R. W. 2014. A bridge to nowhere: methane emissions and the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas. Energy Science & Engineering, 2, 47-60.

[25] KALUSIVALINGAM, A. K., SHARMA, A., PATEL, N. & SINGH, V. 2020a. Enhancing Predictive Business Analytics with Deep Learning and Ensemble Methods: A Comparative Study of LSTM Networks and Random Forest Algorithms. International Journal of AI and ML, 1.

[26] KALUSIVALINGAM, A. K., SHARMA, A., PATEL, N. & SINGH, V. 2020b. Enhancing Supply Chain Visibility through AI: Implementing Neural Networks and Reinforcement Learning Algorithms. International Journal of AI and ML, 1.

[27] KANG, M. & TIAN, J. 2018. Machine learning: Data pre‐processing. Prognostics and health management of electronics: fundamentals, machine learning, and the internet of things, 111-130.

[28] KARPATNE, A., EBERT -UPHOFF, I., RAVELA, S., BABAIE, H. A. & KUMAR, V. 2018. Machine learning for the geosciences: Challenges and opportunities. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 31, 1544-1554.

[29] KUMAR, A. 2018. Global warming, climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. Biofuels: greenhouse gas mitigation and global warming: next generation biofuels and role of biotechnology. Springer.

[30] LASHOF, D. A. & AHUJA, D. R. 1990. Relative contributions of greenhouse gas emissions to global warming. Nature, 344, 529- 531.

[31] LEPPERØD, A. J. 2019. Air quality prediction with machine learning. NTNU.

[32] LI, W., DING, S., WANG, H., CHEN, Y. & YANG, S. 2020. Heterogeneous ensemble learning with feature engineering for default prediction in peer-to-peer lending in China. World Wide Web, 23, 23-45.

[33] LIESKE, D. J., SCHMID, M. S. & MAHONEY, M. 2018. Ensembles of ensembles: combining the predictions from multiple machine learning methods. Machine Learning for Ecology and Sustainable Natural Resource Management. Springer.

[34] LIPPI, M., BERTINI, M. & FRASCONI, P. 2013. Short-term traffic flow forecasting: An experimental comparison of time-series analysis and supervised learning. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 14, 871-882.

[35] LUENGO, J., GARCÍA-GIL, D., RAMÍREZ- GALLEGO, S., GARCÍA, S. & HERRERA, F. 2020. Big data preprocessing. Cham: Springer, 1, 1-186.

[36] MORIN, T., BOHRER, G., NAOR-AZRIELI, L., MESI, S., KENNY, W., MITSCH, W. & SCHÄFER, K. 2014. The seasonal and diurnal dynamics of methane flux at a created urban wetland. Ecological Engineering, 72, 74-83.

[37] NAGANNA, S. R., BEYAZTAS, B. H., BOKDE, N. & ARMANUOS, A. M. 2020. On the evaluation of the gradient tree boosting model for groundwater level forecasting. Knowledge-Based Engineering and Sciences, 1, 48-57.

[38] NAGHIBI, S. A., HASHEMI, H., BERNDTSSON, R. & LEE, S. 2020. Application of extreme gradient boosting and parallel random forest algorithms for assessing groundwater spring potential using DEM- derived factors. Journal of Hydrology, 589, 125197.

[39] OBAID, H. S., DHEYAB, S. A. & SABRY, S. S. The impact of data pre-processing techniques and dimensionality reduction on the accuracy of machine learning. 2019 9th annual information technology, electromechanical engineering and microelectronics conference (iemecon), 2019. IEEE, 279-283.

[40] ODEDEYI, P. B., ABOU-EL-HOSSEIN, K., OYEKUNLE, F. & ADELEKE, A. K. 2020. Effects of machining parameters on Tool wear progression in End milling of AISI 316. Progress in Canadian Mechanical Engineering, 3.

[41] OGUNNOWO, E. O. A Conceptual Framework for Digital Twin Deployment in Real-Time Monitoring of Mechanical Systems.

[42] OGUNNOWO, E. O., ADEWOYIN, M. A., FIEMOTONGHA, J. E., IGUNMA, T. O. & ADELEKE, A. K. 2020. Systematic Review of Non-Destructive Testing Methods for Predictive Failure Analysis in Mechanical Systems.

[43] OKUH, C. O., NWULU, E. O., OGU, E., IFECHUKWUDE, P., EGBUMOKEI, I. N. D. & DIGITEMIE, W. N. Creating a Sustainability-Focused Digital Transformation Model for Improved Environmental and Operational Outcomes in Energy Operations.

[44] OKUH, C. O., NWULU, E. O., OGU, E., IFECHUKWUDE, P., EGBUMOKEI, I. N. D. & DIGITEMIE, W. N. An Integrated Lean Six Sigma Model for Cost Optimization in Multinational Energy Operations.

[45] OLOF, S. S. 2018. A comparative study of black-box optimization algorithms for tuning of hyper-parameters in deep neural networks.

[46] PAWŁOWSKI, K. & KURACH, K. Detecting methane outbreaks from time series data with deep neural networks. Rough Sets, Fuzzy Sets, Data Mining, and Granular Computing: 15th International Conference, RSFDGrC 2015, Tianjin, China, November 20-23, 2015, Proceedings, 2015. Springer, 475-484.

[47] PRAYOGO, D. & SUSANTO, Y. T. T. 2018. Optimizing the Prediction Accuracy of Friction Capacity of Driven Piles in Cohesive Soil Using a Novel Self‐Tuning Least Squares Support Vector Machine. Advances in Civil Engineering, 2018, 6490169.

[48] SAHIN, E. K. 2020. Assessing the predictive capability of ensemble tree methods for landslide susceptibility mapping using XGBoost, gradient boosting machine, and random forest. SN Applied Sciences, 2, 1308.

[49] SALEH, C., DZAKIYULLAH, N. R. & NUGROHO, J. B. Carbon dioxide emission prediction using support vector machine. IOP conference series: materials science and engineering, 2016. IOP Publishing, 012148.

[50] THOMPSON, D., LEIFER, I., BOVENSMANN, H., EASTWOOD, M., FLADELAND, M., FRANKENBERG, C., GERILOWSKI, K., GREEN, R., KRATWURST, S. & KRINGS, T. 2015. Real- time remote detection and measurement for airborne imaging spectroscopy: a case study with methane. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 8, 4383-4397.

[51] VINCENT, J., WANG, H., NIBOUCHE, O. & MAGUIRE, P. 2020. Detecting trace methane levels with plasma optical emission spectroscopy and supervised machine learning. Plasma Sources Science and Technology, 29, 085018.

[52] WHALEN, S. C. & REEBURGH, W. S. 1992. Interannual variations in tundra methane emission: A 4‐year time series at fixed sites. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 6, 139-159.

[53] WUEBBLES, D. J. & HAYHOE, K. 2002. Atmospheric methane and global change. Earth- Science Reviews, 57, 177-210.

How to cite this paper

Semiu Temidayo Fasasi, Oluwapelumi Joseph Adebowale, Abdulmaliq Abdulsalam, Zamathula Queen Sikhakhane Nwokediegwu "Time-Series Modeling of Methane Emission Events Using Machine Learning Forecasting Algorithms" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 4 Issue 4 2020 Page 337-346
Semiu Temidayo Fasasi, Oluwapelumi Joseph Adebowale, Abdulmaliq Abdulsalam, Zamathula Queen Sikhakhane Nwokediegwu "Time-Series Modeling of Methane Emission Events Using Machine Learning Forecasting Algorithms" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, vol. 4, no. 4, Oct. 2020
Semiu Temidayo Fasasi, Oluwapelumi Joseph Adebowale, Abdulmaliq Abdulsalam, Zamathula Queen Sikhakhane Nwokediegwu (2020). Time-Series Modeling of Methane Emission Events Using Machine Learning Forecasting Algorithms. Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 4(4).
Semiu Temidayo Fasasi, Oluwapelumi Joseph Adebowale, Abdulmaliq Abdulsalam, Zamathula Queen Sikhakhane Nwokediegwu "Time-Series Modeling of Methane Emission Events Using Machine Learning Forecasting Algorithms" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, vol. 4, no. 4, Oct. 2020.
@article{1709946,
      author = {Semiu Temidayo Fasasi, Oluwapelumi Joseph Adebowale, Abdulmaliq Abdulsalam, Zamathula Queen Sikhakhane Nwokediegwu},
      title = {Time-Series Modeling of Methane Emission Events Using Machine Learning Forecasting Algorithms},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2020},
      volume = {4},
      number = {4},
      pages = {337-346},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1709946.pdf},
      abstract = {Methane is a significant contributor to global warming, necessitating accurate monitoring and forecasting of its emissions to inform effective mitigation strategies. This paper investigates the application of machine learning algorithms for time-series modeling of methane emission events, addressing the challenges posed by the complex, non-linear, and noisy nature of environmental data. A comprehensive methodology is developed, incorporating advanced data preprocessing techniques and the evaluation of multiple forecasting models, including Long Short-Term Memory networks and ensemble methods such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting. The comparative analysis demonstrates that these machine learning approaches outperform traditional statistical methods in capturing temporal dependencies and episodic emission spikes. Furthermore, the inclusion of contextual environmental variables enhances prediction accuracy and interpretability. The study highlights the potential of machine learning to provide reliable, actionable forecasts that support proactive environmental monitoring, regulatory compliance, and emission reduction efforts. Key challenges such as data quality, model interpretability, and computational demands are discussed, along with recommendations for future research focusing on multimodal data integration and adaptive learning frameworks. This work contributes to advancing data-driven approaches for methane emission forecasting, offering valuable insights for environmental scientists and policymakers engaged in climate change mitigation.},
      keywords = {Methane Emissions, Time-Series Forecasting, Machine Learning, Long Short-Term Memory, Environmental Monitoring, Emission Prediction},
      month = {October},
  }