Real-Time Credit Risk Monitoring: AI-Driven Early Warning Systems for Loan Portfolio Deterioration
Abstract
Real time monitoring of credit risk is leading the financial innovation curve with the possibility of detecting the loan portfolio deterioration in advance through AI enabled early warning systems (EWS). This analysis formulates and tests models which constantly combine the indicators of the borrower behavior and macroeconomic signals to predict the risk of default even before occurring. Our proposed real-time solution integrates sequential deep learning, survival analysis, and hybrid micro-macro modeling and is operated through a streaming architecture facilitated by MLOps and explainability best practices. Evaluating predictive performance, lead time of early warnings, fairness to risky borrowers, and economic efficiency in the face of stress via the use of synthetic based and real-world data (with stringent privacy oversight), we compare the performance of the models against the current state of the art in the field. Our results show that real-time sequence models tend to predict a much longer lead in time than the traditional scorecards in normal conditions, and are more useful in predicting defaults during recessions as well since the macro-conditional hazard models are useful in such situations. The system has a high degree of calibration and fairness, and the explainability tools make model decisions transparent and ready to be presented to the regulator. We describe operation deployment considerations, regulator alignment (e.g. IFRS 9/CECL), cost benefit trade-offs and constraints. The findings emphasize the importance and effectiveness of AI-enabled, around-the-clock surveillance of EWS and how it can provide both theoretic and practical insights to adaptive risk management in the field with respect to financial risks.
Citations
IRE Journals:
Godwin David Akhamere "Real-Time Credit Risk Monitoring: AI-Driven Early Warning Systems for Loan Portfolio Deterioration" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 7 Issue 9 2024 Page 553-563
IEEE:
Godwin David Akhamere
"Real-Time Credit Risk Monitoring: AI-Driven Early Warning Systems for Loan Portfolio Deterioration" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 7(9)
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