Weekly Behavior of the Nifty Index: A Comprehensive Decade-Long Study for Strategic Option Selling from Friday to Thursday
Abstract
This comprehensive research paper presents an extensive quantitative analysis of the Nifty 50 index's weekly behavioral patterns spanning a decade from 2015 to 2025, with specific focus on price movements from Friday market open to the subsequent Thursday market close. The study establishes a robust statistical foundation for developing systematic weekly option selling strategies in the rapidly evolving Indian derivatives market. Through rigorous examination of over 470 weekly trading cycles encompassing various market conditions including bull markets, bear markets, and periods of extreme volatility, this research identifies consistent and exploitable patterns in index behavior. The analysis reveals that approximately 70% of weekly movements fall within ±300 points of the Friday opening price, while extreme movements exceeding ±700 points occur in only 5.3% of weeks, providing strong statistical support for strategic options positioning. The study employs sophisticated statistical methodologies including distribution analysis, volatility clustering examination, and extreme value theory to develop a comprehensive understanding of weekly price behavior. The findings inform the development of a rules-based options selling strategy that systematically capitalizes on time decay (theta) while implementing multi-layered risk management protocols through data-driven strike price adjustments and dynamic stop-loss mechanisms.The research demonstrates the strategy's potential for generating consistent passive income within clearly defined risk parameters, with theoretical returns significantly exceeding traditional fixed-income investments. The empirical evidence supports the viability of systematic options selling approaches when implemented with appropriate discipline and risk management safeguards. This study contributes significantly to the academic literature on systematic trading strategies and provides practical insights for both retail and institutional traders seeking to exploit the structural characteristics of weekly options in emerging market derivatives. The findings offer valuable guidance for evidence-based derivative trading decisions and establish a benchmark for future research in this rapidly expanding field.
Citations
IRE Journals:
Rahul Durgia
" Weekly Behavior of the Nifty Index: A Comprehensive Decade-Long Study for Strategic Option Selling from Friday to Thursday" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 9 Issue 2 2025 Page 1150-1160
IEEE:
Rahul Durgia
" Weekly Behavior of the Nifty Index: A Comprehensive Decade-Long Study for Strategic Option Selling from Friday to Thursday" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 9(2)
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