Predictive Modeling Framework for Renewable Energy Yield Forecasting

• Author(s): Ebubechukwu Chidinma Ezeugwa ; Odunayo Abosede Oluokun ; Enoch Ogunnowo
• Paper ID: 1710391
• Page: 514-544
• Published Date: 31-03-2023
• Published In: Iconic Research And Engineering Journals
• Publisher: IRE Journals
• e-ISSN: 2456-8880
• Volume/Issue: Volume 6 Issue 9 March-2023

Abstract

The increasing global emphasis on renewable energy sources as a solution to climate change and energy security has necessitated the development of sophisticated predictive modeling frameworks for accurate renewable energy yield forecasting. This comprehensive study presents a novel predictive modeling framework that integrates machine learning algorithms, meteorological data analytics, and real-time monitoring systems to enhance the accuracy of renewable energy yield predictions across multiple energy sources including solar, wind, and hydroelectric power generation systems. The framework addresses critical challenges in renewable energy forecasting by incorporating advanced statistical models, deep learning techniques, and ensemble methods to provide reliable short-term and long-term energy yield predictions. The research methodology employs a multi-faceted approach combining historical energy production data, meteorological variables, seasonal patterns, and technological parameters to develop robust predictive models. The framework utilizes artificial neural networks, support vector machines, random forest algorithms, and time series analysis methods to create a comprehensive prediction system that accounts for the inherent variability and uncertainty in renewable energy generation. Data collection encompasses five years of operational data from multiple renewable energy installations across diverse geographical locations, providing a substantial foundation for model training and validation (Akhamere, 2022; Ezeilo et al., 2022; Ogeawuchi et al., 2022). The proposed framework demonstrates significant improvements in prediction accuracy compared to traditional forecasting methods, achieving mean absolute percentage errors of less than 8% for solar energy predictions, 12% for wind energy forecasting, and 6% for hydroelectric power generation forecasts. The integration of real-time weather data and adaptive learning mechanisms enables the system to continuously refine predictions and adapt to changing environmental conditions. The framework incorporates uncertainty quantification methods to provide confidence intervals for predictions, enabling better decision-making for grid integration and energy trading applications. Implementation results across multiple test sites reveal that the predictive modeling framework enhances operational efficiency by enabling proactive maintenance scheduling, optimizing energy storage deployment, and improving grid stability through accurate supply forecasting. The framework's modular design allows for customization based on specific renewable energy technologies and regional characteristics while maintaining core predictive capabilities. Economic analysis indicates potential cost savings of 15-25% through improved forecasting accuracy and reduced operational uncertainties (Kufile et al., 2022; Adelusi et al., 2023). The study contributes to the renewable energy sector by providing a comprehensive, scalable, and adaptable predictive modeling framework that addresses the critical need for accurate yield forecasting in an increasingly renewable energy-dependent global energy landscape. Future research directions include integration with smart grid technologies, enhancement of extreme weather event prediction capabilities, and expansion to emerging renewable energy technologies. The framework represents a significant advancement in renewable energy forecasting methodologies and provides practical solutions for energy sector stakeholders seeking to optimize renewable energy investments and operations.

Keywords

Renewable Energy Forecasting, Predictive Modeling, Machine Learning, Solar Energy, Wind Energy, Hydroelectric Power, Energy Yield Prediction, Artificial Intelligence, Time Series Analysis, Uncertainty Quantification

Citations

IRE Journals:
Ebubechukwu Chidinma Ezeugwa , Odunayo Abosede Oluokun , Enoch Ogunnowo "Predictive Modeling Framework for Renewable Energy Yield Forecasting" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 6 Issue 9 2023 Page 514-544

IEEE:
Ebubechukwu Chidinma Ezeugwa , Odunayo Abosede Oluokun , Enoch Ogunnowo "Predictive Modeling Framework for Renewable Energy Yield Forecasting" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 6(9)