Statistical Modeling Techniques for Reducing Project Delays in Infrastructure Development Projects

• Author(s): Oluwagbemisola Faith Akinlade ; Opeyemi Morenike Filani ; Priscilla Samuel Nwachukwu
• Paper ID: 1710781
• Page: 110-124
• Published Date: 31-08-2018
• Published In: Iconic Research And Engineering Journals
• Publisher: IRE Journals
• e-ISSN: 2456-8880
• Volume/Issue: Volume 2 Issue 2 August-2018

Abstract

Infrastructure development projects are central to economic growth, urbanization, and social well-being, yet they are frequently hampered by project delays resulting from cost overruns, resource constraints, regulatory complexities, and environmental uncertainties. Statistical modeling techniques have emerged as critical tools for mitigating these challenges by enabling predictive analysis, risk assessment, and data-driven decision-making. This explores the application of diverse statistical methods to forecast and reduce project delays in large-scale infrastructure initiatives. Regression analysis facilitates the identification of key delay drivers and quantifies their relative impacts on project timelines. Time series models, such as ARIMA, provide robust forecasting of resource demand and schedule performance across different phases of development. Survival analysis offers valuable insights into the probability and timing of delay occurrences, enabling proactive intervention strategies. Bayesian networks capture the interdependencies of risk factors and allow real-time updates as new project data become available, while Monte Carlo simulations generate probabilistic scenarios to account for uncertainty and support contingency planning. Furthermore, machine learning–driven statistical models enhance predictive accuracy by uncovering nonlinear patterns in complex datasets, providing adaptive solutions to evolving risks. Integrating these techniques into project management practices strengthens resource optimization, improves scheduling reliability, and fosters resilient infrastructure delivery. However, challenges such as limited data availability, model calibration complexity, and resistance to adoption due to low statistical literacy must be addressed. Overall, statistical modeling not only enhances the predictive capacity of infrastructure project management but also promotes sustainable, efficient, and transparent development outcomes. The findings underscore the need for wider adoption of analytics-driven frameworks and continuous model refinement, particularly in emerging economies where the timely completion of infrastructure projects is critical for economic competitiveness and societal advancement.

Keywords

Statistical Modeling, Project Delay Reduction, Infrastructure Development, Predictive Analytics, Risk Assessment, Schedule Optimization, Resource Allocation, Construction Project Management, Uncertainty Analysis, Regression Analysis

Citations

IRE Journals:
Oluwagbemisola Faith Akinlade , Opeyemi Morenike Filani , Priscilla Samuel Nwachukwu "Statistical Modeling Techniques for Reducing Project Delays in Infrastructure Development Projects" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 2 Issue 2 2018 Page 110-124

IEEE:
Oluwagbemisola Faith Akinlade , Opeyemi Morenike Filani , Priscilla Samuel Nwachukwu "Statistical Modeling Techniques for Reducing Project Delays in Infrastructure Development Projects" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 2(2)