Demand Forecasting for Community Blood Supply: Time Series and Causal Methods for Optimal Collections and Inventory Safety

• Author(s): Zainab Mugenyi; Munashe Naphtali Mupa; Kwame Ofori Boakye; Nicholas Donkor; Farisai Melody Nare
• Paper ID: 1712621
• Page: 590-600
• Published Date: 08-12-2025
• Published In: Iconic Research And Engineering Journals
• Publisher: IRE Journals
• e-ISSN: 2456-8880
• Volume/Issue: Volume 9 Issue 6 December-2025

Abstract

Blood supply is one of the pillars of healthcare delivery, and community-based centers tend to have challenges balancing the quantity of donations with the changing demand in hospitals (Gammon et al., 2020; Li et al., 2023). The fact that blood products are perishable and their demand is unpredictable makes the provision of availability and minimal waste difficult (Abouee-Mehrizi et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2022). The purpose of conducting the study is to create a hybrid time series-causal forecasting model, which would combine the information about hospital issues, campaign planning, and demographics to optimize collection planning and inventory security. The suggested model is a unified system of ARIMA and Prophet models and exogenous regressors that utilize seasonality, community behavior, and population dynamics (Ding et al., 2023; Motamedi et al., 2024). Model validation concentrates on service-level performance like stock-out days and wastage rates and makes sure that the statistics as well as the operations are relevant. Results show that hybrid models have better performance compared to the conventional time series models in terms of minimizing forecasting error and efficiency in drive scheduling. In addition to having predictive performance, the study also adds an open-source and nonprofit-accessible forecasting workbook to achieve transparency and replicability in managing blood within communities (Bouzarjomehri et al., 2025; Chen, 2025). This framework promotes the involvement of data-based planning in the logistics of public health and assists in upholding ethical and sustainable management of resources.

Citations

IRE Journals:
Zainab Mugenyi, Munashe Naphtali Mupa, Kwame Ofori Boakye, Nicholas Donkor, Farisai Melody Nare "Demand Forecasting for Community Blood Supply: Time Series and Causal Methods for Optimal Collections and Inventory Safety" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 9 Issue 6 2025 Page 590-600

IEEE:
Zainab Mugenyi, Munashe Naphtali Mupa, Kwame Ofori Boakye, Nicholas Donkor, Farisai Melody Nare "Demand Forecasting for Community Blood Supply: Time Series and Causal Methods for Optimal Collections and Inventory Safety" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 9(6)