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Climate-Responsive Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Model Integrating Hydrological Variability and Land-Use Change
Subject area: Science,Engineering and Technology · Area of research: Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Model
Abstract
Groundwater resources are increasingly threatened by the combined effects of climate variability and rapid land-use change, particularly in regions where monitoring infrastructure and long-term datasets remain limited. This study presents a Climate-Responsive Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Model that integrates hydrological variability and land-use change dynamics to provide a robust, scalable, and policy-relevant framework for groundwater protection and sustainable water resource management. The model combines climate-sensitive hydrological indicators, including precipitation variability, evapotranspiration trends, recharge fluctuations, and groundwater level responses, with spatially explicit land-use metrics such as urban expansion, agricultural intensification, vegetation loss, and surface sealing. These variables are harmonized within a geospatial multi-criteria decision analysis environment to generate dynamic vulnerability indices that reflect both short-term climate anomalies and long-term anthropogenic pressures. Unlike conventional static vulnerability models, the proposed framework incorporates temporal weighting functions to capture seasonal and interannual climate variability, enabling the assessment of shifting vulnerability patterns under changing climatic regimes. Scenario-based simulations are employed to evaluate future groundwater vulnerability under alternative climate projections and land-use development pathways, thereby supporting proactive adaptation planning. The model is designed to operate effectively in data-scarce contexts by leveraging remotely sensed datasets, reanalysis climate products, and transferable hydrological parameters, reducing dependence on dense monitoring networks. Application of the framework demonstrates its capacity to identify vulnerability hotspots, reveal non-linear interactions between climate drivers and land-use transitions, and distinguish areas where groundwater systems are approaching critical stress thresholds. The results highlight the dominant influence of land-use change in amplifying climate-induced recharge variability, particularly in peri-urban and intensively cultivated zones. By integrating climate responsiveness with land-use dynamics, the model advances groundwater vulnerability assessment beyond static mapping toward a more adaptive and forward-looking decision-support tool. The proposed Climate-Responsive Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Model offers practical value for water managers, planners, and policymakers seeking to align groundwater protection strategies with climate adaptation and sustainable land management objectives. Its flexible structure allows for regional customization, iterative updating, and integration into broader water security and environmental risk governance frameworks. Overall, the framework strengthens evidence-based groundwater governance by supporting integrated planning, risk prioritization, and resilient resource management across diverse hydroclimatic and socio-environmental contexts globally applicable.
Keywords
Climate Variability; Groundwater Vulnerability; Hydrological Variability; Land-Use Change; Geospatial Modeling; Climate Adaptation; Water Resource Management
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How to cite this paper
@article{1713082,
author = {Azeez Lamidi Olamide, Omolola Badmus},
title = {Climate-Responsive Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Model Integrating Hydrological Variability and Land-Use Change},
journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
year = {2019},
volume = {3},
number = {6},
pages = {449-470},
issn = {2456-8880},
url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1713082.pdf},
abstract = {Groundwater resources are increasingly threatened by the combined effects of climate variability and rapid land-use change, particularly in regions where monitoring infrastructure and long-term datasets remain limited. This study presents a Climate-Responsive Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Model that integrates hydrological variability and land-use change dynamics to provide a robust, scalable, and policy-relevant framework for groundwater protection and sustainable water resource management. The model combines climate-sensitive hydrological indicators, including precipitation variability, evapotranspiration trends, recharge fluctuations, and groundwater level responses, with spatially explicit land-use metrics such as urban expansion, agricultural intensification, vegetation loss, and surface sealing. These variables are harmonized within a geospatial multi-criteria decision analysis environment to generate dynamic vulnerability indices that reflect both short-term climate anomalies and long-term anthropogenic pressures. Unlike conventional static vulnerability models, the proposed framework incorporates temporal weighting functions to capture seasonal and interannual climate variability, enabling the assessment of shifting vulnerability patterns under changing climatic regimes. Scenario-based simulations are employed to evaluate future groundwater vulnerability under alternative climate projections and land-use development pathways, thereby supporting proactive adaptation planning. The model is designed to operate effectively in data-scarce contexts by leveraging remotely sensed datasets, reanalysis climate products, and transferable hydrological parameters, reducing dependence on dense monitoring networks. Application of the framework demonstrates its capacity to identify vulnerability hotspots, reveal non-linear interactions between climate drivers and land-use transitions, and distinguish areas where groundwater systems are approaching critical stress thresholds. The results highlight the dominant influence of land-use change in amplifying climate-induced recharge variability, particularly in peri-urban and intensively cultivated zones. By integrating climate responsiveness with land-use dynamics, the model advances groundwater vulnerability assessment beyond static mapping toward a more adaptive and forward-looking decision-support tool. The proposed Climate-Responsive Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Model offers practical value for water managers, planners, and policymakers seeking to align groundwater protection strategies with climate adaptation and sustainable land management objectives. Its flexible structure allows for regional customization, iterative updating, and integration into broader water security and environmental risk governance frameworks. Overall, the framework strengthens evidence-based groundwater governance by supporting integrated planning, risk prioritization, and resilient resource management across diverse hydroclimatic and socio-environmental contexts globally applicable.},
keywords = {Climate Variability; Groundwater Vulnerability; Hydrological Variability; Land-Use Change; Geospatial Modeling; Climate Adaptation; Water Resource Management},
month = {December},
}