Current Volume 9
Probabilistic Multi-Criteria Optimization of Hybrid Renewable Systems for Rural Electrification in Nigeria: A Case Study of Oleh
Abstract
Rural electrification in Nigeria faces chronic reliability and affordability challenges due to overreliance on volatile diesel generation. This study develops a probabilistic, multi-criteria framework to optimize hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) for off-grid communities, using Oleh, Delta State, as a case study. The methodology integrates GIS-based resource assessment, Markov chain reliability pre-screening, HOMER Pro techno-economic optimization, weighted multi-criteria decision analysis, and Monte Carlo post-validation under uncertainty. Six configurations ranging from diesel-only to fully renewable PV-BESS-H2 systems were evaluated. Results demonstrate that the PV-BESS-H2-DG hybrid achieves a 43.75% diesel capacity reduction, 98.87% fuel displacement, and the lowest Net Present Cost (₦34.78B) and Levelized Cost of Energy (93.34/kWh), while maintaining 99.99% system availability. Monte Carlo validation confirms its resilience against stochastic load, solar, and component failure uncertainties. The study concludes that integrating hydrogen storage with moderate diesel backup yields the optimal balance of reliability, economic viability, and sustainability, providing a replicable decision-support framework for rural microgrid deployment in Nigeria.
Keywords
Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems, Markov Chain Modeling, Monte Carlo Simulation, Rural Electrification, Probabilistic Optimization.
Citations
IRE Journals:
Olomo Jude Oghenekeno, Eyenubo O. Jonathan, Gbigbidje Favour Peter, Ebisine E. Ebimene "Probabilistic Multi-Criteria Optimization of Hybrid Renewable Systems for Rural Electrification in Nigeria: A Case Study of Oleh" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 9 Issue 11 2026 Page 2048-2053 https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I11-1717696
IEEE:
Olomo Jude Oghenekeno, Eyenubo O. Jonathan, Gbigbidje Favour Peter, Ebisine E. Ebimene
"Probabilistic Multi-Criteria Optimization of Hybrid Renewable Systems for Rural Electrification in Nigeria: A Case Study of Oleh" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 9(11) https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I11-1717696
About IRE Journals
IRE Journals is an open access online journals established with an aim to publish high quality of research work in various diciplines. We have more than 6 years in publications. Over 2500+ papers already published.
Important Links
For Authors
Volume 8:
Issue 1, Issue 2, Issue 3, Issue 4, Issue 5, Issue 6, Issue 7, Issue 8, Issue 9, Issue 10, Issue 11, Issue 12Volume 7:
Issue 1, Issue 2, Issue 3, Issue 4, Issue 5, Issue 6, Issue 7, Issue 8, Issue 9, Issue 10, Issue 11, Issue 12Volume 6:
Issue 1, Issue 2, Issue 3, Issue 4, Issue 5, Issue 6, Issue 7, Issue 8, Issue 9, Issue 10, Issue 11, Issue 12Volume 5:
Issue 1, Issue 2, Issue 3, Issue 4, Issue 5, Issue 6, Issue 7, Issue 8, Issue 9, Issue 10, Issue 11, Issue 12Volume 4:
Issue 1, Issue 2, Issue 3, Issue 4, Issue 5, Issue 6, Issue 7, Issue 8, Issue 9, Issue 10, Issue 11, Issue 12Volume 3:
Issue 1, Issue 2, Issue 3, Issue 4, Issue 5, Issue 6, Issue 7, Issue 8, Issue 9, Issue 10, Issue 11, Issue 12