Probabilistic Multi-Criteria Optimization of Hybrid Renewable Systems for Rural Electrification in Nigeria: A Case Study of Oleh

References

[1] Pelz, S. et al. (2023). Rural energy access challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. Energy Policy, 178, 113642.

[2] World Bank. (2024). Nigeria Off-Grid Market Assessment and LCOE Dynamics. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.

[3] Olatomiwa, O. et al. (2015). Techno-economic analysis of hybrid renewable energy systems for rural electrification in Nigeria. Renewable Energy, 80, 678-690.

[4] Odetoye, T. et al. (2023). Multi-year techno-economic and environmental assessment of zero-emission microgrids in Nigeria. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 56, 103122.

[5] E. Obuseh, J. Eyenubo, J. Alele, A. Okpare, and I. Oghogho, “A systematic review of barriers to renewable energy integration,” J. Asian Energy Stud., vol. 9, pp. 26–45, 2025, doi: 10.24112/jaes.090002.

[6] NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER), "Surface meteorology and solar energy: Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) data for Oleh, Delta State, Nigeria (5.2°N, 6.12°E)," NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://power.larc.nasa.gov/.

[7] Abdulkarim, A. et al. (2016). Availability modeling of standalone hybrid microgrids using Boolean-driven Markov processes. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 7(2), 567-576

[8] Chen, Y. et al. (2019). Stochastic filtering for hybrid energy system design space reduction. Applied Energy, 235, 1120-1133.

[9] HOMER Energy. (2023). HOMER Pro User Manual: Dispatch Strategies & Optimization Algorithms.

[10] Das, P. et al. (2017). Weighted multi-criteria decision making for microgrid planning. Energy, 138, 456-469.

[11] Babatunde, O. et al. (2022). Multi-criteria evaluation of residential renewable energy systems with hydrogen storage. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 47(12), 7890-7905.

[12] Billinton, R., & Allan, R. N. (1996). Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems. Springer.

[13] Jumare, A. et al. (2019). Feasibility of hydrogen storage integration in Nigerian off-grid systems. Energy Reports, 5, 1123-1135.

[14] Okundamiya, M. et al. (2021). Deterministic optimization of PV-hydrogen microgrids in Northern Nigeria. Renewable Energy, 165, 432-445.

[15] Azimoh, C. L. et al. (2016). Hybrid mini-grid systems for rural electrification in Nigeria. Energy for Sustainable Development, 33, 45-56.

[16] Jahangiri, M. et al. (2020). Techno-economic feasibility of hybrid renewable systems in developing regions. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 120, 109654.

@article{1717696,
      author = {Olomo Jude Oghenekeno, Eyenubo O. Jonathan, Gbigbidje Favour Peter, Ebisine E. Ebimene},
      title = {Probabilistic Multi-Criteria Optimization of Hybrid Renewable Systems for Rural Electrification in Nigeria: A Case Study of Oleh},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2026},
      volume = {9},
      number = {11},
      pages = {2048-2053},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1717696.pdf},
      abstract = {Rural electrification in Nigeria faces chronic reliability and affordability challenges due to overreliance on volatile diesel generation. This study develops a probabilistic, multi-criteria framework to optimize hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) for off-grid communities, using Oleh, Delta State, as a case study. The methodology integrates GIS-based resource assessment, Markov chain reliability pre-screening, HOMER Pro techno-economic optimization, weighted multi-criteria decision analysis, and Monte Carlo post-validation under uncertainty. Six configurations ranging from diesel-only to fully renewable PV-BESS-H2 systems were evaluated. Results demonstrate that the PV-BESS-H2-DG hybrid achieves a 43.75% diesel capacity reduction, 98.87% fuel displacement, and the lowest Net Present Cost (₦34.78B) and Levelized Cost of Energy (93.34/kWh), while maintaining 99.99% system availability. Monte Carlo validation confirms its resilience against stochastic load, solar, and component failure uncertainties. The study concludes that integrating hydrogen storage with moderate diesel backup yields the optimal balance of reliability, economic viability, and sustainability, providing a replicable decision-support framework for rural microgrid deployment in Nigeria.},
      keywords = {Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems, Markov Chain Modeling, Monte Carlo Simulation, Rural Electrification, Probabilistic Optimization.},
      month = {May},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I11-1717696}
  }