International Peer-Reviewed JournalOpen AccessISSN 2456-8880
irejournals@gmail.com+91-7433024337

Home / Current Issue / Paper 1709586

1709586 Vol 9 · Issue 1 Download Paper

Wind Energy Forecasting Using Hammerstein-Winer Model

Zaharaddeen Hassan Abdulganiyu

Subject area: Science,Engineering and Technology  ·  Area of research: Energy

Abstract

Wind energy has become the world?s fastest growing source of clean and renewable energy and now contributes a large proportion of total power generation. This proportion will continue to increase because of the global preference for a clean and renewable energy source. However, wind power is difficult to integrate into traditional generation and distribution systems with current technology because it is intermittent, unpredictable and volatile. Thus, it is difficult to match wind generation to energy demand, and the imbalances between demand and generation can cause adverse voltage variations. This power quality problem cannot be solved effectively only by renewable generating technology and/or power electronics. As a whole, wind power integration challenge the power quality, energy planning and power flow controls in the grid. This can be more severe in weak networks, where the whole wind power source may even be disconnected from the grid. In this case, wind energy is forecasted using Hammerstein-wiener model in MATLAB?, the waveform is obtained from the simulation result, the predicted power and the observed power are determined from the waveform. The predicted power determined is improve when it is compared to the observed power. The percentage Error which is calculated from the predicted power and the observed power described the large error associated with the system.

References

[1] Fthenakis, V; Kim, H. C.; “Land Use and Electricity Generation: A Life-Cycle Analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 13, pp. 1465, 2009.

[2] A. Kusiak, H. Zheng, Z. Song, “Wind Farm Power Prediction: A Data Mining Approach”, Journal of Wind Energy, Vol.12, pp. 275-293, 2009.

[3] Y. K. Wu, J. S. Hong, “A literature review of wind forecasting technology in the world”, Proc. of IEEE Power Tech., pp.504- 509, 2007.

[4] Yutong Zhang; Ka Wing Chan, “The impact of wind forecasting in power system reliability”, Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies, pp.2781-2785, 2008.

[5] M. Lydia, S. Suresh Kumar, “A Comprehensive Overview on Wind Power Forecasting”, IPEC 2010, pp.268-273, 2010.

[6] Amiri, R.; Bingsen Wang, “A generic framework for wind power forecasting”, IECON, pp.796- 801, 2011.

[7] C. Monteiro, H. Keko, R. Bessa, V. Miranda, A. Botterud, J. Wang, G. Conzelmann, “Wind power forecasting: state-of-the-art”, Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 2009.

[8] X. Kong, W. Gu, and L. Gu, “Research on the development policy of non-carbon energy- consuming industry using large-scale non- gridconnected wind power,” in Proc. World Non-Grid-Connected Wind Power and Energy, pp. 1-4, Sep. 2009.

[9] R. P. S. Leao, F. L. M. Antunes, T. G. M. Lourenco, and K. R. Andrade Jr, “A comprehensive overview on wind power integration to the power grid,” IEEE Trans. Latin America, vol. 7, no. 6, pp. 620 - 629, Dec. 2009.

[10] A. Yazdani, and R. Iravani, “A neutral-point clamped converter system fordirect-drive variable-speed wind power unit,” IEEE Trans. Energy Conversion, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 596-607, June 2006.

[11] D. L. Yao, S. S. Choi, K. J. Tseng, and T. T. Lie, “A statistical approach to the design of a dispatchable wind power-battery energy storage system,” IEEE Trans. Energy Conversion, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 916-925, Dec. 2009.

[12] Q. Wang, and L. Chang, “An intelligent maximum power extraction algorithm for inverter-based variable speed wind turbine systems,” IEEE Trans. Power Electronic, vol. 19, no. 5, pp.1242-1249, Sep. 2004.

[13] P. Pinson, and G. Kariniotakis, “Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation,” IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 1845-1856, Nov. 2010.

[14] J. Shi, Y. Tang, Y. Xia, L. Ren, and J. Li, “SMES based excitation system for doubly-fed induction generator in wind power application,” IEEE Trans. Applied Superconductivity, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 1105-1108, June 2011.

[15] J. Lee, J. H. Kim, and S. K. Joo, “Stochastic method for the operation of a power system with wind generators and superconducting magnetic energy storages (SMESs),” IEEE Trans. Applied Superconductivity, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 2144-2148, June 2011.

[16] G. Giebel, P. Serensen, and H. Holttinen, “Estimates of Forecast error of aggregated wind power”, TradeWind Report, 2007. [Online]. Available:http://www.trade-wind.eu/fileadm in/documents/publ ications/D 2.2

[17] B. Ernst, B. Oakleaf, M. L. Ahlstrom, M. Lange, C. Moehrlen, B. Lange,U. Focken, K. Rohrig, “Predicting the wind”, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, pp. 78-86, November/December 2007.

[18] C. W. Potter, M. Negnevitsky, “Very short-term wind forecasting for Tasmanian power generation”, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 21, pp. 965-972, 2006.

[19] A. Kusiak, H. Zheng, Z. Song, “Models for monitoring wind farm power”, Journal of Renewable Energy, Vol.34, pp.583-590, 2009.

[20] Z. Huang, Z. S. Chalabi, “Use of time-series analysis to model and forecast wind speed”, Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, Vol.56, pp. 311-322, 1995.

[21] G. K. Rajesh, K. Seetharaman, “Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models”, Journal of Renewable Energy, Vol.34, pp.1388- 1393, 2009.

[22] H. Mori, E. Kutara, “Application of gaussian process to wind speed forecasting for wind power generation”, ICSET, 2008, pp. 956 – 959.

[23] M. G. Lobo, I. Sanchez, “Aggregated wind power prediction methods based on distances between weather forecasting vectors”, ICCEP, June 2009, pp. 242-247

[24] J. Collins, J. Parker, A. Tindal, “Forecasting for utility-scale wind farms – the power model challenge”, CIGRE, July 2009, pp. 1-10

[25] C. Dica, C. I. Dica, D. Vasiliu, Comanescu Gh., M. Ungureanu, “Wind power short-term forecasting system”, IEEE Bucharest Power Tech Conf., 28th June-2nd July, 2009.

[26] N. A. Karim, M. Small, M. Ilic, “Short-term wind speed prediction by finite and infinite impulse response filters: A state space model representation using discrete Markov process”, IEEE Bucharest Power Tech Conf., 28th June- 2nd July, 2009

[27] J. Juban, N. Siebert, G. N. Kariniotakis, “Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting for the optimal management of wind generation”, Power Tech, July 2007, pp. 683- 688.

[28] F. Bourry, J. Juban, L. M. Costa, G. Kariniotakis, “Advanced strategies for wind power trading in short-term electricity markets”, European Wind Energy Conf., Brussels, 31st March-3rd April, 2008.

[29] Rajagopalan, S.; Santoso, S., “Wind power forecasting and error analysis using the autoregressive moving average modeling” IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting,(PES '09), pp.1-6, 2009.

[30] S. Rajagopalan, S. Santoso, “Wind power forecasting and error analysis using the autoregressive moving average modeling”, IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting,(PES '09), pp.1-6, July 2009.

[31] M. A. Mohandes, S. Rehman, T. Halawani, “A neural networks approach for wind speed prediction”, Journal of Renewable Energy, vol. 13, pp.345-354, 1998.

[32] A. Steftos, “A novel approach for the forecasting of mean hourly wind speed time series”, Journal of Renewable Energy, vol.27, pp. 163-174, 2002.

[33] T. G. Barbounis, J. B. Theocharis, “Locally recurrent neural networks for wind speed prediction using spatial correlation”, International Journal of Information Sciences, vol.177, pp.5775-5797, 2007.

[34] M. Carolin Mabel, E. Fernandez, “Analysis of wind power generation and prediction using ANN: A case study”, Journal of Renewable Energy, vol.33, pp. 986-992, 2008.

[35] S. Salcedo-Sanz, Bellido, Garcia, Figuras, L. Prieto, F. Correoso,“Accurate short term wind speed prediction by exploiting diversity in input data using banks of artificial neural netwoks”, Journal of Neuro-computing , vol. 71, pp. 1336- 1341, 2009.

[36] Sreelakshmi, Ramkanth Kumar, “Performance evaluation of short-term wind speed prediction techniques”, International Journal of Computer Science and Network Security, vol.8, No.8, pp. 162-169, August 2008.

[37] I. Damousis, M. C. Alexiadis, J. B. Theocharis, P. S. Dokopoulos, “A fuzzy model for wind speed prediction and power generation in wind parks using spatial correlation”, IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion, vol.19, pp. 352-360, 2004.

[38] I. G. Damousis, P. Dokopoulos, “A Fuzzy Expert System for the Forecasting of Wind Speed and Power Generation in Wind Farms”, ICPICA, May 2001, pp.63-69.

[39] A. Steftos, “A comparison of various forecasting techniques applied to mean hourly wind speed time series”, Journal of Renewable Energy, vol. 21, pp. 23-35, 2000.

[40] T. G. Barbounis, J. B. Theocharis, “A locally recurrent fuzzy neural network with application to wind speed prediction using spatial correlation”, Journal of Neuro-computing, vol.70, pp. 1525-1542, 2007.

[41] L. Fugon, J. Juban, G. Kariniotakis, “Data mining for wind power forecasting”, European Wind Energy Conf., Brussels, 31st March-3 rd April, 2008.

[42] A. Kusiak, H. Zheng, Z. Song, “Short-term prediction of wind farm power: A data mining approach”, IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion, vol. 24, pp. 125-135, 2009.

[43] H. Zheng, A. Kusiak, “Prediction of wind farm power ramp rates: A data mining approach”, J. of Solar Energy Engineering, vol. 131, pp. 031011-1-8, 2009,

[44] A. Kusiak, H. Zheng, Z. Song, “Power optimization of wind turbines with data mining and evolutionary computation”, J. of Renewable Energy, Vol. 35, pp.695-702, 2010.

[45] G. Papaefthymiou, and B. Klockl, “MCMC for wind power simulation,” IEEE Trans. Energy Conversion, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 234-240, Mar 2008.

[46] W. Lu, and B. T. Ooi, “Multiterminal LVDC system for optimal acquisition of power in wind-farm using induction generators,” IEEE Trans. Power Electronic, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 558- 536, July 2002.

[47] S. Bhowmik, R. Spee, and J. H. R. Enslin, “Performance optimization for doubly fed wind power generation systems,” IEEE Trans. Industry Application, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 2394- 2384, July 1999.

[48] J. Wang, M. Shahidehpour, and Z. Li, “Security-constrained unit commitment with volatile wind power generation,” IEEE Trans. Power Systems , vol. 23, NO. 3, pp. 1319-1327, Aug. 2008.

[49] F. Bouffard, and F. D. Galiana, “Stochastic security for operations planning with significant wind power generation,” IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 1-11, May 2008.

[50] J. W. Taylor, P. E. McSharry, and R. Buizza, “Wind power density forecasting using ensemble predictions and time series models,” IEEE Trans. Energy Conversion, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 775-782, Sep. 2009.

[51] P. S. Murthy, P. Devaki, and J. Devishree, “A static compensation method based scheme for improvement of power quality in wind generation,” in Proc. Process Automation, Control and Computing, pp. 1-6, July 2011.

[52] G. Lalor, A. Mullane, and M. J. O. Malley, “Frequency control and wind turbine technologies,” IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 20, no. 4, Nov. 2005.

[53] S. A. L. B. S. Ozdemir, “Wind speed time series characterization by Hilbert transform,” International Journal of Energy Research, vol. 30, no. 5, 2006.

[54] Z. Zhu and H. Yang, “Discrete Hilbert transformation and its application to estimate the wind speed in Hong Kong,” Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, vol. 90, no. 1, pp. 9–18, 2002.

[55] T. H. M. El- Fouly, E. F. El-Saadany, and M. M. A. Salama, “Grey predictor for wind energy conversion systems output power production,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 21, no. 3, August 2006.

[56] J. S. R. Jang, “ANFIS: Adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system,” IEEE transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 665–685, 1993

[57] I. Maqsood, M. R. Khan, G. H. Huang, and R. Abdalla, “Application of soft computing models to hourly weather analysis in southern Saskatchewan, Canada,” Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 115–125, 2005.

[58] R. E. Kalman, “A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems,” Journal of Basic Engineering, vol. 82, no. 1, pp. 35–45, 1960.

[59] E. A. Bossanyi, “Short-term wind prediction using Kalman filters,” Wind Engineering, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 1–8, 1985.

[60] H. Vihriala, P. Ridanpaa, R. Perala, and L. Soderlund, “Control of a variable speed wind turbine with feedforward of aerodynamic torque,” in EWEC-CONFERENCE-, 1999, pp. 881–884.

[61] H. Liu, H. . Tian, C. Chen, and Y. . Li, “A hybrid statistical method to predict wind speed and wind power,” Renewable Energy, vol. 35, no. 8, pp. 1857–1861, 2010

[62] E. Cadenas, O. A. Jaramillo, and W. Rivera, “Analysis and forecasting of wind velocity in Chetumal, Quintana Roo, using the single exponential smoothing method,” Renewable Energy, vol. 35, no. 5, pp. 925–930, 2010.

[63] P. Pinson, H. Nielsen, H. Madsen, and T. Nielsen, “Local linear regression with adaptive orthogonal fitting for the wind power application,” Statistics and Computing, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 59–71, 2008.

[64] A. Costa, A. Crespo, J. Navarro, A. Palomares, and H. Madsen, “Modelling the integration of mathematical and physical models for short- term wind power forecasting,” in Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference EWEC06, Greece, 2006

[65] M. Negnevitsky, P. L. Johnson, and S. Santoso, “Short term wind power forecasting using hybrid intelligent systems,” in Proceedings of the IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2007, pp. 1–4.

[66] M. Negnevitsky, S. Santoso, and N. Hatziargyriou, “Data mining and analysis techniques in wind power system applications: abridged,” in Proceedings of the IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2006.

[67] L. Landberg, “A mathematical look at a physical power prediction model,” Wind Energy, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 23–28, 1998.

[68] T. Ackermann, Wind Power in Power Systems. England: John Wiley & Sons, 2005.

[69] L. Landberg, “Short-term prediction of the power production from wind farms,” Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, vol. 80, no. 1-2, pp. 207–220, 1999.

[70] Y. Hirata, D. P. Mandic, H. Suzuki, and K. Aihara, “Wind direction modelling using multiple observation points,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol. 366, no. 1865, pp. 591–607, 2008.

How to cite this paper

Zaharaddeen Hassan Abdulganiyu "Wind Energy Forecasting Using Hammerstein-Winer Model" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 9 Issue 1 2025 Page 470-492
Zaharaddeen Hassan Abdulganiyu "Wind Energy Forecasting Using Hammerstein-Winer Model" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, vol. 9, no. 1, Jul. 2025
Zaharaddeen Hassan Abdulganiyu (2025). Wind Energy Forecasting Using Hammerstein-Winer Model. Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 9(1).
Zaharaddeen Hassan Abdulganiyu "Wind Energy Forecasting Using Hammerstein-Winer Model" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, vol. 9, no. 1, Jul. 2025.
@article{1709586,
      author = {Zaharaddeen Hassan Abdulganiyu},
      title = {Wind Energy Forecasting Using Hammerstein-Winer Model},
      journal = {Iconic Research And Engineering Journals},
      year = {2025},
      volume = {9},
      number = {1},
      pages = {470-492},
      issn = {2456-8880},
      url = {https://www.irejournals.com/formatedpaper/1709586.pdf},
      abstract = {Wind energy has become the world?s fastest growing source of clean and renewable energy and now contributes a large proportion of total power generation. This proportion will continue to increase because of the global preference for a clean and renewable energy source. However, wind power is difficult to integrate into traditional generation and distribution systems with current technology because it is intermittent, unpredictable and volatile. Thus, it is difficult to match wind generation to energy demand, and the imbalances between demand and generation can cause adverse voltage variations. This power quality problem cannot be solved effectively only by renewable generating technology and/or power electronics. As a whole, wind power integration challenge the power quality, energy planning and power flow controls in the grid. This can be more severe in weak networks, where the whole wind power source may even be disconnected from the grid. In this case, wind energy is forecasted using Hammerstein-wiener model in MATLAB?, the waveform is obtained from the simulation result, the predicted power and the observed power are determined from the waveform. The predicted power determined is improve when it is compared to the observed power. The percentage Error which is calculated from the predicted power and the observed power described the large error associated with the system.},
      month = {July},
  }